UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2024: +1.05 deg. C
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2w ago
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2024 was +1.05 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the March, 2024 anomaly of +0.95 deg. C, and setting a new high monthly anomaly record for the 1979-2024 satellite period. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land). It should be noted that the CDAS surface temperature anomaly has been falling in recent months (+0.71, +0.60, +0.53, +0.52 deg. C over the last four months), wh ..read more
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Unnecessary Net Zero, Part II: A Demonstration with Global Carbon Project Data
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
Some commenters on my previous blog post, Net Zero CO2 Emissions: A Damaging and Totally Unnecessary Goal, were dubious of my claim that nature will continue to remove CO2 from the atmosphere at about the same rate even if anthropogenic emissions decrease…or even if they were suddenly eliminated. Rather than appeal to the simple CO2 budget model I created for that blog post, let’s look at the published data from the 123 (!) authors the IPCC relies upon to provide their best estimate of CO2 flows in and out of the atmosphere, the Global Carbon Project team. I created the following chart from th ..read more
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Net Zero CO2 Emissions: A Damaging and Totally Unnecessary Goal
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
The goal of reaching “Net Zero” global anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide sounds overwhelmingly difficult. While humanity continues producing CO2 at increasing rates (with a temporary pause during COVID), how can we ever reach the point where these emissions start to fall, let alone reach zero by 2050 or 2060? What isn’t being discussed (as far as I can tell) is the fact that atmospheric CO2 levels (which we will assume for the sake of discussion causes global warming) will start to fall even while humanity is producing lots of CO2. Let me repeat that, in case you missed the point: Atmo ..read more
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The 2024 Solar Eclipse: What’s All the Fuss About?
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
I feel fortunate to have witnessed two total solar eclipses in my lifetime. The first was at Center Hill Lake in central Tennessee in 2017, then this year’s (April 8) eclipse from Paducah, Kentucky. Given my age (68), I doubt I will see another. For those who have not witnessed one, many look at the resulting photos and say, “So what?”. When I look at most of the photos (including the ones I’ve taken) I can tell you that those photos do not fully reflect the visual experience. More on that in a minute. Having daytime transition into night in a matter of seconds is one part of the experience, w ..read more
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UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2024: +0.95 deg. C
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2024 was +0.95 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up slightly from the February, 2024 anomaly of +0.93 deg. C, and setting a new high monthly anomaly record for the 1979-2024 satellite period. New high temperature records were also set for the Southern Hemisphere (+0.88 deg. C, exceeding +0.86 deg. C in September, 2023) and the tropics (+1.34 deg. C, exceeding +1.27 deg. C in January, 2024). We are likely seeing the last of the El Nino excess warmth of the upper tropical ocean being transferred to the tr ..read more
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UAH Global Temperature Update for February, 2024: +0.93 deg. C
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2M ago
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2024 was +0.93 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the January, 2024 anomaly of +0.86 deg. C, and equaling the record high monthly anomaly of +0.93 deg. C set in October, 2023. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land). A new monthly record high temperature was set in February for the global-average ocean, +0.91 deg. C. The following table lists various regional LT depart ..read more
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Proof that the Spencer & Christy Method of Plotting Temperature Time Series is Best
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
3M ago
Since the blogosphere continues to amplify Gavin Schmidt’s claim that the way John Christy and I plot temperature time series data is some form of “trickery”, I have come up with a way to demonstrate its superiority. Following a suggestion by Heritage Foundation chief statistician Kevin Dayaratna, I will do this using only climate model data, and not comparing the models to observations. That way, no one can claim I am displaying the data in such a way to make the models “look bad”. The goal here is to plot multiple temperature time series on a single graph in such a way the their different ra ..read more
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What Period of Warming Best Correlates with Climate Sensitivity?
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
3M ago
When computing temperature trends in the context of “global warming” we must choose a region (U.S.? global? etc.) and a time period (the last 10 years? 50 years? 100 years?) and a season (summer? winter? annual?). Obviously, we will obtain different temperature trends depending upon our choices. But what significance do these choices have in the context of global warming? Obviously, if we pick the most recent 10 years, such a short period can have a trend heavily influenced by an El Nino at the beginning and a La Nina at the end (thus depressing the trend) — or vice versa. Alternatively, if we ..read more
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U.S.A. Temperature Trends, 1979-2023: Models vs. Observations
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
3M ago
Updated through 2023, here is a comparison of the “USA48” annual surface air temperature trend as computed by NOAA (+0.27 deg. C/decade, blue bar) to those in the CMIP6 climate models for the same time period and region (red bars). Following Gavin Schmidt’s concern that not all CMIP6 models should be included in such comparisons, I am only including those models having equilibrium climate sensitivities in the IPCC’s “highly likely” range of 2 to 5 deg. C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Approximately 6 times as many models (23) have more warming than the NOAA observations than those having ..read more
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UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2024: +0.86 deg. C
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
3M ago
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2024 was +0.86 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up slightly from the December, 2023 anomaly of +0.83 deg. C. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land). New monthly record high temperatures were set in January for: Northern Hemisphere (+1.06 deg. C, previous record +1.02 deg. in October 2023) Northern Hemisphere ocean (+1.08 deg. C, much above the previous record of +0.85 ..read more
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