UAH Global Temperature Update for February, 2024: +0.93 deg. C
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
3w ago
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2024 was +0.93 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the January, 2024 anomaly of +0.86 deg. C, and equaling the record high monthly anomaly of +0.93 deg. C set in October, 2023. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land). A new monthly record high temperature was set in February for the global-average ocean, +0.91 deg. C. The following table lists various regional LT depart ..read more
Visit website
Proof that the Spencer & Christy Method of Plotting Temperature Time Series is Best
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
Since the blogosphere continues to amplify Gavin Schmidt’s claim that the way John Christy and I plot temperature time series data is some form of “trickery”, I have come up with a way to demonstrate its superiority. Following a suggestion by Heritage Foundation chief statistician Kevin Dayaratna, I will do this using only climate model data, and not comparing the models to observations. That way, no one can claim I am displaying the data in such a way to make the models “look bad”. The goal here is to plot multiple temperature time series on a single graph in such a way the their different ra ..read more
Visit website
What Period of Warming Best Correlates with Climate Sensitivity?
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
When computing temperature trends in the context of “global warming” we must choose a region (U.S.? global? etc.) and a time period (the last 10 years? 50 years? 100 years?) and a season (summer? winter? annual?). Obviously, we will obtain different temperature trends depending upon our choices. But what significance do these choices have in the context of global warming? Obviously, if we pick the most recent 10 years, such a short period can have a trend heavily influenced by an El Nino at the beginning and a La Nina at the end (thus depressing the trend) — or vice versa. Alternatively, if we ..read more
Visit website
U.S.A. Temperature Trends, 1979-2023: Models vs. Observations
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
Updated through 2023, here is a comparison of the “USA48” annual surface air temperature trend as computed by NOAA (+0.27 deg. C/decade, blue bar) to those in the CMIP6 climate models for the same time period and region (red bars). Following Gavin Schmidt’s concern that not all CMIP6 models should be included in such comparisons, I am only including those models having equilibrium climate sensitivities in the IPCC’s “highly likely” range of 2 to 5 deg. C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Approximately 6 times as many models (23) have more warming than the NOAA observations than those having ..read more
Visit website
UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2024: +0.86 deg. C
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
1M ago
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2024 was +0.86 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up slightly from the December, 2023 anomaly of +0.83 deg. C. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land). New monthly record high temperatures were set in January for: Northern Hemisphere (+1.06 deg. C, previous record +1.02 deg. in October 2023) Northern Hemisphere ocean (+1.08 deg. C, much above the previous record of +0.85 ..read more
Visit website
Gavin’s Plotting Trick: Hide the Incline
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2M ago
Since Gavin Schmidt appears to have dug his heels in regarding how to plot two (or more) temperature times series on a graph having different long-term warming trends, it’s time to revisit exactly why John Christy and I now (and others should) plot such time series so that their linear trend lines intersect at the beginning. While this is sometimes referred to as a “choice of base period” or “starting point” issue, it is crucial (and not debatable) to note it is irrelevant to the calculated trends. Those trends are the single best (although imperfect) measure of the long-term warming rate disc ..read more
Visit website
Spencer vs. Schmidt: My Response to RealClimate.org Criticisms
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2M ago
What follows is a response to Gavin Schmidt’s blog post at RealClimate.org entitled Spencer’s Shenanigans in which he takes issue with my claims in Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models. As I read through his criticism, he seems to be trying too hard to refute my claims while using weak (and even non-existent) evidence. To summarize my claims regarding the science of global warming: Climate models relied upon to guide public policy have produced average surface global warming rates about 40% greater than observed over the last half-century (the period of most rapid warming) The disc ..read more
Visit website
How Much Ocean Heating is Due To Deep-Sea Hydrothermal Vents?
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2M ago
I sometimes see comments to the effect that recent ocean warming could be due to deep-sea hydrothermal vents. Of course, what they mean is an INCREASE in hydrothermal vent activity since these sources of heat are presumably operating continuously and are part of the average energy budget of the ocean, even without any long-term warming. Fortunately, there are measurements of the heat output from these vents, and there are rough estimates of how many vents there are. Importantly, the vents (sometimes called “smokers”) are almost exclusively found along the mid-oceanic ridges, and those ridges ..read more
Visit website
New Article on Climate Models vs. Observations
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2M ago
I was asked by Heritage Foundation to write an article on the exaggerated global warming trends produced by climate models over the last 50 years or so. These are the models being used to guide energy policy in the U.S. and around the world. The article is now up at Heritage.org. As a sneak peek, here’s a comparison between models and observations for the U.S. Corn Belt near-surface air temperatures in summer: The post New Article on Climate Models vs. Observations first appeared on Roy Spencer, PhD ..read more
Visit website
UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2023: +0.83 deg. C
Roy Spencer
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
3M ago
2023 Was the Warmest Year In the 45-Year Satellite Record The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2023 was +0.83 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down from the November, 2023 anomaly of +0.91 deg. C. The 2023 annual average global LT anomaly was +0.51 deg. C above the 1991-2020 mean, easily making 2023 the warmest of the 45-year satellite record. The next-warmest year was +0.39 deg. C in 2016. The following plot shows all 45 years ranked from the warmest to coolest. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.14 C/de ..read more
Visit website

Follow Roy Spencer on FeedSpot

Continue with Google
Continue with Apple
OR