This month’s open thread on climate science topics. The post Unforced variations: July 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Please stay focused, minimize repetitive comments, and maintain a half-way decent level of decorum. Thanks! The post Unforced variations: June 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

There were a number of media reports today related to Yuan et al. (2024), for instance, New Scientist, The Guardian etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes/influences on the extreme temperatures seen in 2023. So to help people keep track, we’ll maintain a list here to focus discussions. Additionally, we’ll extract out the key results (such as the reported radiative forcing) as a guide to how this will all eventually get reconciled. We’ll split the papers up by process/topic, or if th ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Many eyes will be focused on whether April temperatures will be the 11th month in row of records… Note that we have updated the data and figures from the Nenana Ice Classic and Dawson City river ice break up pools (the nominal 13th and 5th earliest break-ups (or 15th and 4th, w.r.t. to the vernal equinox) in their respective records)). And a quick note about moderation: If your comment is a personal attack on another commenter instead of a substantive argument, it will just be deleted. As will your subsequent complaints. Ain’t nobody got time for th ..read more

There has been a lot of commentary about perceived disagreements among climate scientists about whether climate change is, or will soon, accelerate. As with most punditry, there is less here than it might seem. Last year, Jim Hansen and colleagues published a long paper that included a figure suggesting that they expected that global temperature trends from 2011 to increase above the recent linear trends. Fig. 24 from Hansen et al (2023). This has meshed with another argument around whether an acceleration of global temperatures in recent decades can already be detected. Tamino has made a cas ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Lots more discussion about 2023, aerosols, heat content and imbalances to come I expect… Note, comments should be substantive even if you are arguing with who you perceive to be the worst person in the world. Comments that are mainly personal attacks will just get deleted. The post Unforced variations: Apr 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

Going back a few months, I spent a bit of time pointing out the strategy and nonsense in the various Willie Soon and company’s efforts to blame current warming on solar activity. I specifically pointed out their cultish devotion to a single solar activity reconstruction (Hoyt and Schatten, 1993) (HS93); with an update from Scaffeta (2023), and their increasingly elaborate efforts to create temperature series that correlate to it. Well, Theodosios Chatzistergos has just published a deep dive into the HS93 reconstruction (Chatzistergos, 2024) (C24) and… let’s say the results will not be surpris ..read more

The month’s open thread on climate topics. More record monthly warmth, but only the second lowest Antarctic sea ice though (growing since 2023!). The post Unforced variations: March 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.” The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here), but using rather different data and methods. The new study by van Westen et al. is a major advance in AMOC stability science, coming from what I consider the world’s leading research hub for AMOC stability studies, in Utrecht/Holland. (Some of their contribu ..read more

This month’s open thread for climate topics. This month’s climate highlight will likely be the PACE launch at some point between Feb 6th and Feb 8th, that will hopefully provide information on aerosols and ocean color with more detail than ever before. Fingers crossed! A few notes on the blog and commenting. We have an open thread (this one!) for random discussions or new topics. Comments on specific posts should be related to the topic. Random contrarian nonsense is just going to get deleted (as are the complaints about it). Additionally, excessive and argumentative commenting is tiresome ..read more