It looks like Iranian officials don't want to beat the war drums any harder. One on the wires: "There's been no airstrike in Isfahan or other parts of the country. They only made a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters, and they were all shot down." Other local reports: - Drones, not missiles - No target hit on ground - Air defense worked - All normal on the ground - Supreme National Security Council currently meeting - IRGC air defense on alert A US official also told CNN that a strike was carried out in Iran but didn't target nuclear sites. To me this looks like something that Ir ..read more

I don't know about quality of this translation and I'm sure Iran doesn't have a space agency but it looks like Iran is going to try to take the win here. That said, a separate (unconfirmed) report is out there with some tough words from the IRGC about nuclear sites. That said, it doesn't look like this attack is on a nuclear site, but rather on a military base so I'm inclined to go with the first report. Then again, my inclination is always to fade fear. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com ..read more

Now we know why US equities took a dive midday. Bloomberg's Jennifer Jacobs reports that Israeli officials notified the US earlier today they planned to retaliate in the next 24-48 hours, citing sources. I'm going to guess the notice was given right around 11 am New York time: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com ..read more

Watching this unfold in real time, I've been amazed at how slowly this has all be disseminated. These tweets from two of the biggest news services are literally an hour after we first started reporting on this attack. I think the slow reporting has something to do with the slow legs down in the market. The moves seem to fizzle out and then get fresh legs when there are new reports of news that's an hour old. You also have to take into account that this is all happening late in New York and overnight in Europe, so phones are ringing all over the world and some people are certainly more worried ..read more

To be honest, I'm a bit surprised at the second-leg down in risk assets after headlines from ABC crossed the wires with a US official confirming the attacks. Here's another US official who always likes to share what he knows from classified briefings. I think he's pretty much telling us what happened. This line of attack probably also explains the report of the radar station being knocked out. Gold is at an all-time high and the yen is up 60 pips. I'm inclined to fade this because I think Iran will let it go. Of course, everyone wants to know about damage and potential casualties first. But if ..read more

The market is in 'duck-and-cover' mode but there might be some good news crossing as a US official tells ABC that Isreal conducted a strike on 'a target' in Iran (not multiple targets). So maybe it's light enough to be let go by Iran? Or maybe I'm naive. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com ..read more

Well, there were a few days there where it looked like everyone would settle down and no one else would get killed. I guess we were all naive. Israel appears to be striking Iran and at this point, the best we can hope for is that the damage is minimal and casualties are low or zero. And then we go back to hoping that Iran doesn't return fire. Signs are pointing to the closure of Iranian airspace but so far markets aren't freaking out too much. That could change quickly once we see the size and scope of the response. WTI crude oil is up 2.4%, trading at $84.60. Generally the trade here is to fa ..read more

Reports are coming in: The first is that there was a radar battalion hit in Syria near the city of Izraa. The second is that there are 'explosions' near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. It's a major city of 2.2 million. Finally, there is now talk of intense warplane activity across parts of Iraq. Oil prices are up more than 1%. Update: More reports are coming in of strikes on Iran now with Sky News Arabia citing local media highlighting 3 large explosions in Isfahan, there is also talk of explosions in Natanz, Iran. It appears the strikes in Syria and Iran may both be from Iran. This artic ..read more

What happened? The market party has been raging all year and suddenly everyone has a hangover. The S&P 500 has fallen four days in a row and today the Nikkei is down 2%. The pain is starting to bleed over to FX as well with AUD/USD on the backfoot in early Asia-Pacific trade. If it can clear 0.6388, that will be a new low since November. When you zoom out at bonds and AUD/USD, you wonder if equities are living on borrowed time. April is supposed to be strong seasonally and that hasn't worked out while the seasonals turn in May. Fed cuts are evaporating and it looks like the market could br ..read more

The shine is slowing being taken off a great year for Japanese stocks. Today's decline is 1.3% at the open, erasing the modest gain from yesterday and falling to the lowest since Feb 13. We're also now well-below the 1990 highs. I think in the big picture this will be viewed as a healthy dip after a strong Q1 but it may all hinge on falling US inflation. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com ..read more