The Russian tactical nuclear threat card was spent
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
6d ago
I believe that the ability to end a RUS-NATO war with a RUS threat of using 'tactical' nukes against attempts of reconquest (and against airbases) is an essential requirement for Russia to dare attack any NATO member for real. They could not win in a conventional war.   Exactly this nuclear threat has been eroded by the inflationary bluffing with nukes since 2022.*     Thus IMO Russia wouldn't dare now to attack NATO anytime soon even if a fairy gave them back all troops and material they spent against Ukraine and all of Ukraine surrendered, handing over all its equipment ..read more
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Mobilisation Part III: Personnel
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
2w ago
Major wars usually show the very same thing; insufficient (quantity) training of reserve leaders pre-war leads to too short training of leaders in wartime. Well-known examples include the American Civil War, First World War, Second World War and the current Russo-Ukrainian War. The result is amateurish military actions leading to avoidable casualties, failures in offence and failures in defence against skilful attacks. It takes as a (very rough) rule of thumb three months for a decent basic training to turn a civilian into a soldier, (I say) about three more months for a specialisation trai ..read more
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A Ukrainian merchant raider
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
2w ago
Warships are peculiar; you do not need to commission them in a port. Prize ships were commissioned as warships at sea during both World Wars. This means that the Ukraine could take possession of a merchant ship (ideally a small container ship), load and equip it at sea, commission it as a Ukrainian warship and start raiding Russian maritime trade in the Mediterranean, Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean and maybe even the Pacific Ocean. German WW1 merchant raider "Wolf" (first raider with aircraft onboard, 451 days patrol) Some additional fuel tanks, some containers and a helicopter for a ..read more
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Mobilisation Part II: "Escalatory"
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
3w ago
"Escalatory" This word has been used a lot recently, typically by people who oppose aiding Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian aggression. The fear of escalation guides the thoroughly idiotic American National Security advisor, for example.  To appease or to paralyse out of fear in face of aggressors is a path of failure: It prevents downsides to the aggressor, who can attack and steal from the weak without costs exceeding the (perceived) benefits. The costs of economic sanctions are near-irrelevant to an aggressive leader who thinks in centuries-spanning nationalistic-imperial ..read more
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Mobilization Part I: The need to counter arms buildups
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
3w ago
The French were keen to reconquer Alsace-Lothringia after 1871. They conscripted to the maximum (about 75% of young men were deemed fit and pressed into service), trained many officers, introduced the revolutionary Soixante-Quinze field gun and produced it in the thousands before WWI. Germany enjoyed a larger population base and kept the peace with a less extreme conscription (a bit over 50%). The defensive outlook of Germany in 1871-1913 was based on the consensus that German borders were satisfactory with no need for expansion. The alliance situation did put the gargantuan Russian army on ..read more
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"Evolving" transitory tech: FPV drones & electronic warfare
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
1M ago
Back in the 1930's the Nazi government of Germany sent troops and vehicles to assist Franco's Nationalist-Fascist coup (later civil war) effort in Spain. The only tanks available for employment (testing) in Spain were Pzkpfw I, bulletproof tankettes with two normal calibre machineguns. They did of course encounter bulletproofed vehicles of Soviet manufacture and even thier steel core bullets proved to be useless against those. Germany got ahead of that problem by using 20 mm autocannons in the successor and later 37 mm cannons (and 75 mm stub guns) in the last pre-WW2 tank models. The tech t ..read more
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Do the British carriers make sense?
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
2M ago
The article "Floating mausoleums to political vanity: Our two new aircraft carriers cost almost £8 billion to build but, with the Middle East on fire, they're languishing in Portsmouth. We'd be better off selling them, says DAVID PATRIKARAKOS" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13011743/aircraft-carriers-8-billion-middle-east-portsmouth.html creates a bit of a stir. Some online responses claim that it's error-ridden while agreeing somewhat.  I would certainly have edited the part about the missile threat to carriers; the anti-ship cruise missile threat appears to be in check IF th ..read more
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The victim card was played too brazenly
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
2M ago
It appears that playing the victim card to get a carte blanche to commit offences yourself doesn't work so well for Israel any more. They're so much used to it that they don't seem to be able to follow a different approach, though. The death toll of the October 7th attacks by Hamas appears to be roughly 1/3 combatants (I'm not sure whether this includes deaths among those who were taken prisoner by Hamas fighters and other Gaza Strip inhabitants). https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231215-israel-social-security-data-reveals-true-picture-of-oct-7-deaths This compares very unfavourably ..read more
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A Personal Defence Weapon
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
2M ago
  Personal Defence Weapons (PDWs) are weapons meant for soldiers who do not have shooting at the enemy with small arms as an important part of their job description. Support troops, tank crews, helicopter pilots and even infantry platoon leaders qualify. Early examples of de facto PDWs were the revolvers or pistols used by officers and the relatively weak M1 "carbines" of the U.S. Army in WW2. Germany used UZI submachineguns for that purpose during the Cold War and introduced the dedicated PDW "MP7" with its tiny bullet since. The pistols in use with the Bundeswehr are not really de facto ..read more
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Response to Houthi piracy
Defence and Freedom
by Unknown
2M ago
I wrote during the times of Somali-origin piracy that the patrolling mission was stupid. It was known by collected intelligence that almost all piracy could be traced back to three coastal villages (at some point in time - this may have changed later). The hugely successful (and rapid!) anti-piracy campaign of Pompey the Great cleared the Mediterranean off the pirates plague for centuries to come. It involved a fleet, but the fleet actions were rather supportive of using infantry to clear out the piracy bases. Eventually, some cornered pirate ships stood up for battle and were destroyed. His ..read more
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