Newsquawk.com Week Ahead 29th April – 3rd May: MON: Spanish Flash CPI (Apr), German Prelim CPI (Apr), EZ Sentiment Survey (Apr); Japan Market Holiday (Showa Day). TUE: FOMC Meeting Commences (Announcement on 1st May), Japanese Retail Sales/Industrial Output (Mar),Chinese NBS PMIs (Apr), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Final PMI (Apr), French Flash CPI (Apr), German Flash GDP (Q1), EZ Flash CPI (Apr)/Flash GDP (Q1), US Employment Wages (Q1)/CaseShiller (Feb), US Chicago PMI (Apr), New Zealand Jobs (Q1). WED: FOMC Announcement, Eurozone, Chinese Market Holiday (Labor Day), South Korean Exports (Ap ..read more

  If we all always knew when the appropriate moment to take profit on a trade was, then there would be a lot less chaos in the markets. We would all be armed with the precise knowledge that we needed to make the right moves and to trust our instincts. It is a lot harder than it sounds though! The good news is that by using the Fibonacci tool, we can start to see more clearly where some of the take profit targets ought to be, and that might be ideal for those who lean heavily on the Fibonacci tool. Let’s start with how you should draw your Fibonacci lines in the first place. It doesn’t mat ..read more

  Let’s start with the assumption that the MoF/BoJ have reached their point of pain. I am not saying this is the case but it pays to be on intervention alert. After looking at this chart from Friday you can see why I say it pays to be on alert.     Timing for an intervention alert? Should the BoJ decide to take a stand and intervene, it would look to get the most bang for its buck. In other words, pick a time where it would use the least resources and produce the greatest impact from intervention. If I was in the BoJ’s shoes I would wait until just after the Tokyo opening on Mo ..read more

  Pivot points may prove useful in helping you determine market sentiment. What this means, in a nutshell, is that you may be able to tell if traders are more interested in buying or selling an instrument at this particular moment in time. When you think about pivot points, you should think of them as a measuring stick that allows you to determine which side of the market you ought to be on. When market sentiment gets tilted strongly to one side or the other, you can adjust your trades to match up with what you see happening in the market. If the price action of a currency pair breaks thr ..read more

  Truly professional traders know that it is their responsibility to trade with the best and most useful tools possible in order to achieve the best results. This may sound simplistic, but there are far too many amateur traders leaving a lot on the table because they don’t use tools that are easily available to them. One of those tools is to use a Fibonacci retracement with Japanese candlesticks. By combining the Japanese candlestick chart with their Fibonacci retracement charts, traders can determine where the best prices are for a support or resistance trade. When looking at trends, Jap ..read more

  After weeks of so many speculations and questions : “ Is BoJ going to intervene and where “ we got a simple answer – NO Even if Boj did some undercover work and used lots of senseless blubber , market did not flinch. In good ole’ times, even Reuters would use some light profanity and go openly with the well known sentence : “ Put your money where your mouth is “ or “ Money talks – BS walks “ None of that happen…not from Reuters ( or any other well known market contributor ) not from the BoJ. So what do we have on our hands now ? Some very experienced and esteemed colleagues already said ..read more

  Forex traders of all stripes will tell you that they prefer this indicator or that one. They will make their pitch as to why their specific preferred indicator is the one that you should pay the most attention to. However, you know that the reality is that a lot of different types of indicators are valuable in Forex trading, and it really comes down to using the indicators that you have available to make the most of your trading. You have to combine them in ways that make sense to you in order to formulate a strategy that will work. One way traders combine tools is to use Fibonacci retr ..read more

With USDJPY poised just below 155, traders, while cautious, do not seem to be fazed by the BoJ intervention threat. With that said, no one wants to be caught in the first wave of intervention, which makes it hard to have a reasonable stop as the reaction would be sharp and slippage more the norm than the exception. This chart shows an intervention scare that turned out to be a false alarm.     As I have noted, forex intervention that turned in USDJPY, should it occur, would seem to be a short-term fix unless the Bank of Japan moves away from its go-slow approach to raising interest ..read more

  Yesterday we have seen a strong move Up , driven by the data . Resistance at 1.06700 was taken out ( now acts as a support ) , and we have closed the day Above the sharp downtrend Resistance line. There are no important data today , so we’ll see if this move can be sustained . If it does, we’ll have two consecutive Closed bars above the downtrend resistance line, and that would signal a change of trend. However, if close will be bellow 1.06500 , it would be a perfect Sell signal and run at 1.05500 would be inevitable. Supports at  1.06800, 1.06700 , 1.06500 & 1.06250 Resistance ..read more

  Fibonacci Retracements are NOT Flawless — They Break Did you truly believe that there was any single variable in the world of trading that would provide you with everything that you needed to invest perfectly every time? Unfortunately, that is not how trading works. There are a lot of indicators that are useful to help inform your trades, but you should not deceive yourself into thinking that any given indicator is the only piece of information that you require in order to trade well. It turns out that the Fibonacci retracement tool is very popular with many traders, and that is all fin ..read more