The vast majority of congressional districts have voted "straight-party" in presidential elections since 2008. There are 56 districs that have voted for either side's nominee at least once, though. These seats will be important in the overall fight for the House. The post Districts of Change, Part Two: Looking Beyond the Straight-Party Districts appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

TX-28 moves from Likely Dem to Leans Dem following up indictment of Rep. Henry Cuellar (D), and we follow up our item from last week about the tricky procedural questions if no one wins a majority of electoral votes in the presidential election and the House needs to resolve it. The post Notes on the State of Politics: May 7, 2024 appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

Thanks to Dave's Redistricting App, a tool which we use often at the Crystal Ball, we are able to easily compare congressional district data across the four most recent presidential elections. For this issue, we examine some of the district-level changes between the 2008 and 2020 elections. The post Districts of Change, Part One: How All 435 Congressional Districts Voted from 2008-2020 appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

GOP remains highly favored if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes and the House decides the presidency The post Trump’s Contingent-cy Plan appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

A rating change in Pennsylvania's House races, and some uncertain signals from the finalized California House top-two primary results The post Notes on the State of Politics: April 24, 2024 appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

Though Donald Trump handily won most states that have voted in the 2024 Republican primary season so far, his stregth was not uniform. Using his overall performance against his most prominent rival, Ambassador Nikki Haley, as a baseline in each state, Trump's numbers were strongest in rural and exurban areas and weakest in places that have trended Democratic in general elections--although there were some exceptions. The post Where Trump’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

We’re making a couple of rating changes today, both in Arizona. The state’s open-seat Senate race goes from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. The post Rating Changes: Arizona Senate and AZ-6 appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states voted predictably. As part of a time capsule we are putting together to be opened at the center’s 50th anniversary in 2049, we are asking our future students to consider what has changed and what has stayed the same. Had we done the same exercise when the center was founded 25 years ago, we would have seen an Electoral College alignment from 1976-1996 that looked a lot different than what we’ve become familiar with this century. The post An Electoral College Time Cap ..read more

Yesterday in Arizona, the state Supreme Court gave the green light to a strict, 1860s-era law that bans abortion in nearly all cases. Democrats may be poised to ride the backlash in this swing state, as some local Republicans are trying to distance themselves from the ruling. Meanwhile, the Nebraska legislature's debate over its electoral vote allocation could further elevate Arizona's importance in the Electoral College. The post Making Sense of Arizona’s New Electoral Landscape appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

Some polls have also shown Biden doing unusually well among senior citizens. The oldest voters have generally voted to the right of the national vote in recent cycles, and that is probably what we should expect in 2024 as well, despite these polls. The post Seniors for Biden? Looking Into the Polls Among Another Key Subgroup appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more