At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 • Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 • Asking Rents Down 1.1% Year-over-year • ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com ..read more

The key economic reports this week are November CPI and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York Fed survey will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and no change to policy is expected. ----- Monday, December 11th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, December 12th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November. 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for no change in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.0% year ..read more

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more almost tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022. COVID Metrics   Now Week Ago Goal Hospitalized2? 17,479 15,516 ≤3,0001 Deaths per Week2 1,197 1,291 ≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Currently Hospitaliz ..read more

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. In the first 11 months of 2023, total carloads were 10.82 million, up 0.2% (21,700 carloads) over last year and up 0.5% (53,682 carloads) over 2021. ... In 2023 through November, intermodal originations totaled 11.68 million, down 6.0% (748,046 units) from 2022 and down 10.6% (1.39 million units) from 2021. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2023: Total o ..read more

From BofA: Our 4Q GDP tracking estimate remains at 1.0% q/q saar as higher than expected October construction spending was offset by lower than expected vehicle sales in November and a small downward revision in core capital goods orders in the final October print. [Dec 6th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.4% (qoq ar). Our Q4 domestic final sales estimate remains at +2.1% (qoq ar). [Dec 7th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter ..read more

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: In 2021, I pointed out that with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, we would see an increase in REOs in late 2022 and into 2023. And there was a slight increase. However, I argued this would NOT lead to a surge in foreclosures and significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) since lending has been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes. ... Here ..read more

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined.  The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November.  At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since February 2020.  So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 98% all of the j ..read more

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined. ... he change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 35,000, from +297,000 to +262,000, and the change for October remained at +150,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined ..read more

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December ..read more

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November. The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. There were 150,000 jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. From BofA economists: "Nonfarm payroll employment likely rose by 200k in November following a 150k increase in October. The main factor behind the acceleration relative to September is that two major strikes ended ahead of the November survey period. ... On the household survey, we expect the labor force participation rate to be unchange ..read more