Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q1, down from 3.4% in Q4. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, down from 212 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in the index. • At 11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for Apri ..read more

From WardsAuto: April U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Start Second Quarter with Lukewarm Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: The second quarter will be key to 2024’s total results, as demand must continue growing during April-June for the entire year to top 16 million units for the first time in five years. The period could be a leading indicator of how much automakers ultimately are willing to lay off incentives and other forms of discounting, vs. implementing production slowdowns, to keep inventory in check if demand does not pick up significantly. emphasis added Click on graph for larger ..read more

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2024. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in five states, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in two states, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 78. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U ..read more

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI March 2024: Architecture firm billings retreat further in March Business conditions at architecture firms softened in March, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.6 for the month. This marked the 14th consecutive month of declining billings at firms as inflation, supply chain issues, and other economic challenges continue to affect business. While inquiries into new projects have continued to grow during that period, it has been at a slower pa ..read more

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in March. I’ve added a comparison of active listings, new listings, and closings to the same month in 2019 (for markets with available data). This gives us a sense of the current low level of sales and inventory, and also shows some significant regional differences. The ..read more

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 19, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent high ..read more

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders. • During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate ..read more

Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March; Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year, I noted that median prices were up year-over-year (median prices are distorted by the mix). Seasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May). And seasonally prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December).  The recent surge in prices started mid-year 2020 and ran through Q1 2022 when mor ..read more

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 693 thousand. The previous three months were revised down combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.8 percent above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows New Hom ..read more

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Essentially Flat Just Under 5 Month Highs Mortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week. There were no major events or economic reports to cause volatility in the underlying bond market, but bonds were able to improve modestly by the end of the day. ... By staying near Friday's levels, the average lender is just shy of the highest rates in 5 months. A top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenario is still in the mid 7% range. [30 year fixed 7.43%] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 10:00 AM ET ..read more