Later this week, on Thursday, 25 April 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its first estimate of the United States' Gross Domestic Product during the first quarter of 2024. Because that date is so close, it's a good opportunity to check in with how 2024-Q1's GDP tracks with what a momentum-based forecasting method projected it would be for this quarter over seven months ago. That simple method, called the "Climbing Limo", uses nominal GDP data that was available back in September 2023 in its projections. The following chart reveals how closely that method worked for anticipati ..read more

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) fell again durin ghte third week of April 2024. The index closed out the week at 4,967.23, a little over three percent below the level it closed the second week. The index has dropped 5.5% below its record peak closing value from 28 March 2024. The main driving force behind the falling level of stock prices are slipping expectations for when and by how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during 2024. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3) w ..read more

What happens when you embed a miniature flying drone inside a ball? Or more precisely, when you mount a lightweight miniature drone inside a ball-shaped frame that allows air to pass through so the drone's rotors can work? What you get is a bit of modern magic that lets you play catch with yourself. Meet the Flying Orb Ball Hover Toy, or "the boomerang ball", the concept of which is demonstrated in the following short video (HT: Core77): Versions of this technological wonder are available at retailers like Amazon and Walmart. And like many modern tech-based toys, it has a rechargeable batter ..read more

Nearly four weeks ago, we put down a marker for what lay ahead for the S&P 500 based on the index' quarterly dividend futures. Looking beyond 2024-Q2, you'll see something unusual. There's projected drop-off in quarterly dividends between 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3. It's unusual because we would ordinarily expect to see the third quarter's anticipated dividends fall in between the projected values for the second and fourth quarters. And since the outlook for the index' dividends in all quarters has been improving, we would have at least expected to see it close the gap between the second and f ..read more

Inflationary price increases have resumed for Campbell's Tomato Soup. Our monthly survey of the prices at which ten major grocery retailers are selling an iconic Number 1 size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup indicates upward price movement has resumed after stabilizing during the latter half of 2023. The changes we're observing are significant for U.S. consumers because Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) has produced and sold its condensed tomato soup product in this standard 10.75 fluid ounce can continuously since January 1898. Because of that inherent characteristic, its price is not affec ..read more

Solving Sudoku puzzles has become a very popular pastime around the world since the Times of London began publishing them twenty years ago. Although the puzzle itself has been around for much longer, it was its appearance in the Times that prompted its popularity to explode. The puzzle itself can be described as a kind of simplified crossword puzzle, but with numbers. And maybe not so simple. Sudoku.com sets out the basic rules: Sudoku is played on a grid of 9 x 9 spaces. Within the rows and columns are 9 “squares” (made up of 3 x 3 spaces). Each row, column and square (9 spaces each) needs ..read more

The first quarter of 2024 has come and gone. Along the way, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has been rising at one of the fastest clips on record. That observation is a good sign of the extent to which China, the worlds's biggest consumer of coal and the world's biggest producer of carbon dioxide emissions, is pushing to grow its economy. But China isn't alone in increasing its emissions at such a fast rate. India is also boosting its consumption of coal and its emissions of carbon dioxide to power its economic growth. Together, the two most populous nations in ..read more

The total value of goods exchanged between the United States and China rose for the first month since October 2022. That month marked the beginning of a serious deterioration of trade between the two countries following President Biden's action to restrict the export of advanced semiconductor technology from the U.S. to China. The fallout from President Biden's anti-free trade policies has been worse than the losses that occurred during former President Trump's 2018 tariff war with China prior to the coronavirus pandemic's negative effect on trade. We measure that loss in trade with the trai ..read more

In February 2024, the median new home price sold in the United States fell to $400,500. While this initial estimate will go through three sets of revisions before being finalized, it so far represents the lowest median price recorded for a new home since June 2021. The typical new home sold in the United States between then and now have exceeded that threshold. Unfortunately that doesn't help the typical American household very much. Even at the lowest price recorded for the median new home sold since June 2021, it still remains out-of-reach for the typical American household. With conventio ..read more

The IIE team has truly gone to the dogs for this edition of Inventions in Everything. We can honestly say that because we've gone through a trove of patents for inventions that solve a technical challenge involving man's best friend and that friend's daily need to do their business, so to speak. But only one of those patents stands out for its solution to that technical challenge. That's because U.S. Patent 6,769,382 perhaps best defines the nature of the problems its inventor, Chui-Wen Chiu set out to solve. That problem is described in the background of the invention: Domestic pets such as ..read more