Jacob welcomes Dee Smith on the podcast. Dee and Jacob have had several conversation on Real Vision, but Jacob wanted to host Dee himself so they could talk about whatever they wanted. This podcast sure does deliver that – they talk about whether the world is actually getting worse (Jacob is an optimist and Dee a pessimist on that score), and even dive into an extended discussion on immortality…and why thinking about deep humanistic questions is actually at the core of everything we discuss on this podcast. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:40) – Dee's 2024 outlook (10:45) – Hans Morgenthau ..read more

It’s been too long since Jacob and Marko, cousins by choice, got together to record a podcast. They dive deep into what Trump winning the presidency again could mean for global geopolitics and trade – while addressing topics like U.S. inflation, Iran’s attacks on Israel, U.S. v global investing opportunities, and…of course…hot basketball takes. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:07) – U.S. Economy (20:17) - Israel/Iran/KSA (25:13) - What happens if Trump wins? (33:44) – Trump/Biden scenarios (38:30) - Biden's track record and trade deals (46:36) - Tariffs (59:36) - Multipolarity, bipolarity, c ..read more

 Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence. Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has been secured in some form or another. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:40) – Yuroslav's Backgroun ..read more

Iran launched a bunch of missiles and drones. What next? -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career ..read more

Jacob and Rob discuss the nature of economic crises, before exploring recent developments in the U.S.-China-Japan love triangle. They also explore the expectedly/unexpectedly hot CPI print and take lessons for the future. Spoiler alert: We think the market is wrong about the yen! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:12) – Taxonomy of crashes/debating globalization (12:26) – China, Janet Yellen, (27:34) – Japan (47:00) – Globalization revisited (55:00) – Shameless plug -- Referenced in the Show: NYRB article: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/04/04/the-crash-next-time-seven-crashes-harold-jam ..read more

Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:10) - Taiwan (19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans (23:07) – Taiwan (25:10) – Immigration/Demographics (45:30) – India (47:30) – Historians rule -- Referenced in the Show: Angus De ..read more

Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:39) – Defining terms (11:41) – Weaponizing finance (20:50) – Crypto/Milei (28:00) - WW3 + Ecological disasters (40:57) – Debt ..read more

Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka (13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse ..read more

Buckle your seatbelts – this episode is going to take you on a ride. Matt Pines rejoins the show to discuss “the defining challenge of our generation” – the cyber conflict between China and the U.S. From there, they explore the global implications associated with the fragmentation of society due to digitalization and how it might impact currency, trade, and the future of war. And because it’s Matt they close by discussing aliens. Of course -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:48) – China v. US cyber conflict (21:28) – Kinetic threshold (37:48) – Bladerunner 2024  (50:48) – Bitcoin/Hunger Ga ..read more

Jacob and Rob are pressed for time, but they squeeze in a quick podcast between meetings to discuss the big news out of Japanese markets this week. They give a window into CI’s international allocation strategy and what countries they are feeling good and bad about, before turning to political intrigue in Vietnam and lessons for and from the U.S. semiconductor industry after the allocation of over $8 billion in grants to $INTC. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) - Japan and the Fed (17:30) – Yikes Canada (22:09) – Vietnam ( 31:41) – Intel and the CHIPS Act -- Referenced in the Show: Econom ..read more