“This is how history went after McCoy changed it … Because ALL this lets them develop the A-bomb first.  With the A-bomb & with their V2 rockets to carry them, Germany captured the world.”   - Spock, from the Star Trek Episode, “The City on the Edge of Forever.” In this episode we look at one of the most common “What If?” questions in history: the plausibility of the Axis powers (specifically Germany) winning the Second World War.  Also, probably the most complicated.  Could Germany have been better off waiting to start the war?  What if Hitler’s strategic errors a ..read more

“I had a feeling of the essential rightness of all.  He was dead and I was alive; it could so easily have been the other way round; and that would somehow have been right too.”   - Richard Hillary, Royal Air Force pilot, reflecting on the first German plane he shot down In this episode we look at the controversial claim made by US Army General S.L.A. Marshall in 1947, when he asserted that less than 25% of US riflemen fired their weapons at the enemy in WWII.  What is usually called the ratio-of-fire statistic, Marshall’s thesis almost immediately influenced the US Army did unde ..read more

"AIR RAID ON PEARL HARBOR.  THIS IS NOT DRILL."      – US Navy dispatch, December 7, 1941. In this episode we look at one of the all-too frequent examples of a successful surprise attack in modern warfare.  Most students of history are familiar with the basics: an (un)fortunate set of circumstances enabled Japanese carrier air forces to achieve complete surprise and inflict heavy damage to US military forces at the Hawaiian naval base.  Here we dig a little deeper to investigate why the Japanese decided to go to war with the United States and ultimately why the a ..read more

"Moltke is not a general to copy but to study"     -  J.F.C. Fuller, June 12, 2023   In this episode we look at Helmuth von Moltke (the Elder), the Prussian Chief of the Prussian General Staff most noted for the dramatic Prussian victories over Austria and France which led to the foundation of Germany in 1871.  Most historians will casually acknowledge him as a brilliant military figure and attribute the dramatic rise of Prussia military prowess to his leadership.  Not wrong, but not quite right.  Moltke was not a battlefield commander and did not even i ..read more

"All the ingredients of a successful counteroffensive have already been unfolding over the past weeks"    -  Vox, June 12, 2023 In this episode we examine Ukraine's 2023 summer offensive, specifically why it has not achieved the lofty expectations that many Ukrainian backers were hoping for.  I suspect future historians will look back at the offensive and cite it as a classic case of psychological incompetence.  Too much was asked and expected of what was objectively a modest Ukrainian force.  NATO trained 63,000 soldiers, less troops than Napoleon had at Austerl ..read more

“The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.”   – Henry Kissinger In this episode we update a classic article written by Andrew Mack back in 1975.  As I feel strongly enough that a 50-year-old article is worth re-investigating and much of this analysis is based on Mack’s original conclusions, I highly recommend you read the original which is easily available in digital format.  Its full title is “Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict” and it appeared in the journal World Politics, Volume 27.  How do massively outnumbered, outgunned, out-trained ..read more

“There is a story, no doubt apocryphal, that gamers at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, have many times replayed the 1942 Battle of Midway - but have never been able to produce an American victory.”      – Taken from historian Robert Cowley’s book What If?  “Find better gamers.”     – My response.   In the episode, we look at the celebrated Battle of Midway, in which US naval forces decisively defeated the Imperial Japanese Navy.  The prevailing narrative, as portrayed in two Hollywood films, was the plucky and outnumbered Americans were t ..read more

“I never was truly my own master but was always ruled by circumstances.”      – Napoleon Bonaparte This is the last of a three-part series on the Emperor of the French inspired by historian Andrew Robert’s biography, Napoleon: A Life.  The book is quite good at revealing the human being behind the controversial historical figure.  Focusing primarily on the military sphere, this episode examines the significance of military genius, that is, why is it that sometimes brilliance seems to have a decisive impact on history and why sometimes it is bounded by larger historica ..read more

“Ukraine has achieved irreversible momentum.”   -- US General Ben Hodges, Retired, November 3,  2022  “From a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine.”  -- US General Mark Milley, January 20, 2023 In the episode, we look at the nature of wartime reporting and investigate how the circumstances of the Russia-Ukraine in February 2023 have changed so much that previous assumptions in 2022 are likely no longer true.  Russia seems to have suc ..read more

“You must not fight too often with one enemy, or you will teach him all your art of war.”     – Napoleon Bonaparte  This is the second of a three-part series on the Emperor of the French inspired by historian Andrew Robert’s biography, Napoleon: A Life.  The book is quite good at revealing the human being behind the controversial historical figure.  Focusing primarily on the military sphere, this episode examines the significance of military genius, that, is why is it that sometimes brilliance seems to have a decisive impact on history and why sometimes it is bounded b ..read more