"AIR RAID ON PEARL HARBOR.  THIS IS NOT DRILL."      – US Navy dispatch, December 7, 1941. In this episode we look at one of the all-too frequent examples of a successful surprise attack in modern warfare.  Most students of history are familiar with the basics: an (un)fortunate set of circumstances enabled Japanese carrier air forces to achieve complete surprise and inflict heavy damage to US military forces at the Hawaiian naval base.  Here we dig a little deeper to investigate why the Japanese decided to go to war with the United States and ultimately why the a ..read more

"Moltke is not a general to copy but to study"     -  J.F.C. Fuller, June 12, 2023   In this episode we look at Helmuth von Moltke (the Elder), the Prussian Chief of the Prussian General Staff most noted for the dramatic Prussian victories over Austria and France which led to the foundation of Germany in 1871.  Most historians will casually acknowledge him as a brilliant military figure and attribute the dramatic rise of Prussia military prowess to his leadership.  Not wrong, but not quite right.  Moltke was not a battlefield commander and did not even i ..read more

"All the ingredients of a successful counteroffensive have already been unfolding over the past weeks"    -  Vox, June 12, 2023 In this episode we examine Ukraine's 2023 summer offensive, specifically why it has not achieved the lofty expectations that many Ukrainian backers were hoping for.  I suspect future historians will look back at the offensive and cite it as a classic case of psychological incompetence.  Too much was asked and expected of what was objectively a modest Ukrainian force.  NATO trained 63,000 soldiers, less troops than Napoleon had at Austerl ..read more

“The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.”   – Henry Kissinger In this episode we update a classic article written by Andrew Mack back in 1975.  As I feel strongly enough that a 50-year-old article is worth re-investigating and much of this analysis is based on Mack’s original conclusions, I highly recommend you read the original which is easily available in digital format.  Its full title is “Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict” and it appeared in the journal World Politics, Volume 27.  How do massively outnumbered, outgunned, out-trained ..read more

“There is a story, no doubt apocryphal, that gamers at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, have many times replayed the 1942 Battle of Midway - but have never been able to produce an American victory.”      – Taken from historian Robert Cowley’s book What If?  “Find better gamers.”     – My response.   In the episode, we look at the celebrated Battle of Midway, in which US naval forces decisively defeated the Imperial Japanese Navy.  The prevailing narrative, as portrayed in two Hollywood films, was the plucky and outnumbered Americans were t ..read more

“I never was truly my own master but was always ruled by circumstances.”      – Napoleon Bonaparte This is the last of a three-part series on the Emperor of the French inspired by historian Andrew Robert’s biography, Napoleon: A Life.  The book is quite good at revealing the human being behind the controversial historical figure.  Focusing primarily on the military sphere, this episode examines the significance of military genius, that is, why is it that sometimes brilliance seems to have a decisive impact on history and why sometimes it is bounded by larger historica ..read more

“Ukraine has achieved irreversible momentum.”   -- US General Ben Hodges, Retired, November 3,  2022  “From a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine.”  -- US General Mark Milley, January 20, 2023 In the episode, we look at the nature of wartime reporting and investigate how the circumstances of the Russia-Ukraine in February 2023 have changed so much that previous assumptions in 2022 are likely no longer true.  Russia seems to have suc ..read more

“You must not fight too often with one enemy, or you will teach him all your art of war.”     – Napoleon Bonaparte  This is the second of a three-part series on the Emperor of the French inspired by historian Andrew Robert’s biography, Napoleon: A Life.  The book is quite good at revealing the human being behind the controversial historical figure.  Focusing primarily on the military sphere, this episode examines the significance of military genius, that, is why is it that sometimes brilliance seems to have a decisive impact on history and why sometimes it is bounded b ..read more

“People Sleep Peacefully in Their Beds at Night Only Because Rough Men Stand Ready to Do Violence on Their Behalf”  – Attributed to George Orwell  In the episode, we examine whether or not Orwell’s quote has historical evidence to support it.  Are people civilized only because less civilized men guard them while they sleep?  Building on the scholarship of Georges Dumézil who compared the mythologies are various Indo European peoples, this podcast argues yes.  Not only that, anthropological data also suggests this contention reveals a fundamental distrust civilian leade ..read more

"Russia's advantages in capacity, capability, and geography combine to pose insurmountable challenges for Ukrainian forces tasked with defending their country." -- The RAND Corporation, January 21, 2022 In the episode, we investigate how events in the Russia-Ukraine war have unfolded.  It was widely predicted by Western strategists the Russia was so much more powerful than Ukraine that any assistance Washington might provide would be largely irrelevant.  How could Western experts have been so wrong?  How has Ukraine managed not only to stop the Russian offensive, but also count ..read more