This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 47,909 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2001 onward, through January 2024. Total Production Permian tight oil production came in at 5.4 million b/d in January (after upcoming revisions, horizontal wells only), 2% higher than a year earlier. Natural gas production was 22 Bcf/d, representing an annual increase of about 10%. In 2023 5,822 horizontal wells started producing, almost the same number as the year before (5,869), which was the highest ever. Drill ..read more

Picture this: half of Lower 48 production comes from wells under 18 months old. Like awkward teenagers, these wells are too old for pre-drill forecasts and too young for curve fits. So despite being incredibly important to NPVs or supply projections, young wells can’t be forecasted accurately with traditional methods.  Enter Novi’s patented machine learning algorithms: by leveraging geology, completions, and spacing data in addition to the well’s production history, Novi can forecast these young PDP (Proven Developed Producing) wells with unprecedented accuracy. With Novi’s investment-gr ..read more

Last week, the Dallas Federal Reserve released its quarterly Energy Survey. It collected input from 147 E&P’s and 50 service firms from Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana. The major themes were operating vs. new drill breakevens, methane charges, the LNG permitting pause, and changes to employment/staffing levels. One of the essential datasets the agency collects is the Activity Index, which indicates if business activity, employment, capital expenditures, and other indicators increased, decreased, or remained unchanged compared to both the previous quarter and the quarter from the year pri ..read more

Impact of Gas Price Drop on Operators Henry Hub gas prices have witnessed a significant decline from their November peak of approximately $3.50 per Mcf, reaching near-record lows of around $1.60 per Mcf. This drastic shift has prompted operators in major gas basins to respond by reducing rigs and, in some instances, voluntarily shutting down production. For instance, EQT announced in early March its decision to shut in 30-40 Bcf of production during the first quarter of 2024. Concerns in the Industry Given the persistently low gas prices, there is widespread concern within the industry about t ..read more

This interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 18,940 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production from 2001 onward, through January. Total Production Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells came in at 1.03 million b/d in January, a decline of over 200 kb/d from the previous month. Harsh winter weather at the start of the year caused many operators to temporarily shut in their wells. Natural gas production also fell by a double-digit percentage, to 2.9 Bcf/d. Unlike for oil, natural gas production has continued to increase in ..read more

Renewing your oil and gas data services is a critical process that can significantly impact your operations and bottom line. With the energy sector in constant flux, it’s more important than ever for investors to have access to reliable, up-to-date upstream data. But with so many different data providers out there, how can you know which one is right for you?  Your instinct may guide you towards established companies that have stood the test of time in the energy industry. However, it’s essential to recognize that this may not always be the wisest decision, as it could lead to overlooking ..read more

Our industry has relied on type curves for oil and gas forecasting for decades, with J. J. Arps’s famous equation published nearly 80 years ago. By selecting “type” wells, averaging their production, and fitting one or more parametric curves to the average, reservoir engineers generate a type curve.  Type curves are used across the industry for pre-drill forecasting, reserves, planning and economics. So for something so widespread across the industry, why do we say that “type curves are dead”?   Problem: limitations of type curves Type curves, while extremely useful, have several i ..read more

Last week, the oil and gas industry witnessed a $26 billion merger between Diamondback and Endeavor. This landmark deal is assured to create a Permian giant valued at over $60 billion, positioning it as a formidable force in the industry, second only to ExxonMobil in Midland production volumes.  In our analysis of this merger, we highlighted that save for one asset, the acreage was largely accretive to Diamondback’s position on both a free cash flow and a rock quality basis. Ultimately, we viewed the deal positively, and the market agreed as Diamondback’s stock was up over 10% through th ..read more

NAPE was a blast this year! The energy was contagious, despite tough commodity prices. It felt like a reunion, with the return of cautious optimism. From shale CEOs to international prospectors, the event was teeming with diverse participants. Among them, we found ourselves next a booth of lawyers equipped with a driving range simulator. Though the THWACK of golf balls initially caught us off guard, we were quickly mollified with a nice gifted bottle of whiskey from the attorneys.  Let’s delve into the highlights and insights that defined this year’s event.   1. Shift in focus This ..read more

Impact of White House Pause on LNG Export Licenses: Exempted Projects and Their Implications On January 26th, the White House paused approvals for new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export licenses to non-free trade agreement (non-FTA) countries. As we highlighted in our recent analysis of Chesapeake’s merger with Southwestern, there are 14 projects representing ~26 Bcf/d of approved LNG projects that are not yet operational or under construction. Of these 14, three projects representing ~8 Bcf/d have already been awarded a non-FTA license. As a result, Driftwood (Tellurian), Texas LNG (Glenfarn ..read more