While it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Lumentum Holdings down the road, II-VI’s actions over the last 18 months or so, amply demonstrate that it had no interest in opening the door further for a duopoly across the optics realm. The intention started with the willingness of the latter to pay quite a high premium to acquire Coherent, a major reason being to keep it out of the hands of the former, as the two engaged in a bidding war. There were definite consequences for Lumentum, as it quickly became clear that it was a pivotal battle (at least for the foreseeable future) for su ..read more

Last October, fibeReality wrote an article defending a proposition that Broadcom’s big expenditure push for co-packaged optics has been based on a bluff. Since that time, we have received other postulates from our contacts, one of the most intriguing being that the supplier is so involved with near package optics/CPO because of the hardships in getting to 200-gig SerDes. Naturally, there is also the kind of Machiavellian explanation that the top leadership at Broadcom has just been blinded by ambition in striving to offer a very expensive solution as it takes control of both the switch and opt ..read more

At OFC 2023, the real buzz should have been about the mounting public support by vendors of the form factor, OSFP-XD, which will ultimately lead to a substantial amount of revenue for the marketplace in the future. Additionally, what could easily be perceived as an apparent repudiation of co-packaged optics in favor of pluggables by Marvell Technology (in the past, a prominent supporter of the former concept) on its quarterly financial call, just before the large conference, seemed to be totally ignored at the show. Rather, industry cheerleaders chose to get behind another unfounded narrative ..read more

The implications for the inability of Lumentum to acquire Coherent, despite the financial benefits in failing to do so, have become increasingly profound for the former. Obviously, a successful purchase of Coherent would have ameliorated difficulties on the industrial laser side. More critically, the announcement of the buyout of NeoPhotonics represents a shift in focus from margins to revenue, which fibeReality’s latest intelligence points to as part of a five-year plan to reach a substantial level of the latter. We understand that the realistic nature of the total goal might be subject to un ..read more

Despite the unequivocal remarks on not currently planning to use 400ZR+ or necessarily for that matter, even higher capacity, inter-data center ZR modules by Ashish Vengsarkar, Head of Optical Networking Technologies, Google, USA, as the keynote speaker at the Data Center Summit of OFC 2022, there strikingly appears to be very little impact on the public discourse in the industry on such pluggables. Once again, Google represents the biggest force when it comes to the optics technology direction for the hyperscalers, and one would think that at least adjustments in the questions being asked in ..read more

Broadcom has appeared solidly behind its public engagement with co-packaged optics, developing switches with optical I/O. In fact, the supplier seems to be pulling out all of the stops in at least leaving the impression that it is organizing the entire firm around CPO. There are also potential blueprints to compel customers to purchase the full CPO solution in order to obtain the switch ASICs.  fibeReality is unaware of another sizable corporation that has ostensibly made such an immense commitment to this networking concept as its core strategy.  Broadcom CPO Strategy – Is Hock Tan ..read more

Several days ago, fibeReality wrote an article referring to intelligence we acquired around the middle of last month and we stated Lumentum Holdings “has maintained at least somewhat of a leadership posture in 3D sensing technology development over II-VI.” More specifically, it appears that the former has been able to increase its yields more substantially than the latter. Consequently, Lumentum’s income has been able to rise, while on II-VI’s last earnings call, the supplier had to grapple with a question concerning its “consumer business…grow[ing] sequentially in the December quarter, but no ..read more

One would struggle to remember a discussion among veterans of the optical equipment space recently contemplating potential mergers, considering a combo between Adtran and ADVA. Over 20 years ago, it might have made “common sense” as Tom Stanton, CEO of the former stated during the combination M&A call. In the late 1990s, Adtran was under the original leadership and excelled at riding down a very long cost curve in offering high-quality platforms. At that time, ADVA was truly hungry to make penetration into the US, and it would have facilitated entry into the largest incumbent operators in ..read more

Experimental work on the quantum effect in photonics goes back to 1976 at AT&T-Bell Labs which resulted in the formation of a set of photodiodes. Into the 1980s, there was optimism that such gear could be used in a couple of large applications. Fast forward to today and the hyperbole surrounding quantum is at an all-time high. Large optical organizations catering to the needs of suppliers cannot afford to ignore the vast amounts of capital being thrown at quantum, despite the overwhelming challenges continuing to get in the way. At least the Rump Session at OFC’22 will provide equal time t ..read more

It was so much fun to speak in person at ECOC 2021 and directly make eye contract with individuals in a live audience rather than doing it through the impersonal nature of a Zoom conference. This writer immediately stated the inherent uneasiness in comparing two solutions head to head, OSFP-XD and co-packaged optics, which both will not be significantly real for over five years. Trade shows should spend more time on minor modifications of mature products, which are more interesting to discuss than gear, which may never see the light of day. Nevertheless, not all vaporware are created equal. In ..read more