With just over five months from the start of the next provincial election, are we at a point where BC’s political landscape is about to be reshaped?  The BC Liberals won the popular vote six times in a row from 1996 to 2017 but that brand has been discarded.  Its successor brand, BC United, has fragmented with two MLAs defecting to the upstart BC Conservatives, and many of its voters parked there too – the amount differs depending on which poll you’re looking at. Regardless of the exact numbers, it is crystal clear that there is a vote split. Electoral coalitions are tough to ma ..read more

Air Quotes Media, a political media company that created Curse of Politics and The Herle Burly podcasts, is proud to announce its newest podcast, “Hotel Pacifico” hosted by Mike McDonald, Kate Hammer, with Geoff Meggs as a contributing panellist.  Hotel Pacifico will be a weekly hour-long podcast with three reoccurring segments on each episode: first, the pod will begin with an interview by McDonald and Hammer with an important voice in British Columbia politics ; second, the Strategy Suite segment will welcome Geoff Meggs to Hotel Pacifico, where the three politicos (McDonald ..read more

I will be writing occasional commentaries for Air Quotes media, a hub for political commentary. Air Quotes also produces the Herle Burly and Curse of Politics podcasts. Here’s my latest: Has any province got it worse than British Columbia when it comes to representation in Ottawa? And is there anything to be done about it? First, it’s a tough gig for a BC Member of Parliament, travel-wise. Three time zones away.  The far-out Eastern Fringe, Newfoundland and Labrador, is a mere one and a half away. It’s not like an MP can pack up the car and head home for the weekend.  It’s 4,442 km t ..read more

The last few months have provided fresh case studies about political parties in the parliamentary system that change leaders while governing. Most leaders come to power whilst their party is in opposition.  Lose an election and the pressure mounts for change.  Why leave when you’re governing? But sometimes, heads of government are forced out when their re-election prospects look bleak and/or they have lost the trust and confidence of the grassroots of their party. This was the case recently in the United Kingdom and in the Province of Alberta. And sometimes leaders leave fo ..read more

BC Liberal candidate Eleanore Sturko marched to victory on Saturday in Surrey South, winning a seat that the party would typically view as a ‘safe seat’ until recently. Here are the results of the by-election compared to the 2017 and 2020 general election results: *By-election results are not final Hot take: The BC Liberals won, which was no small thing. A loss here would have been a major setback. After being pummelled by John Horgan’s NDP in the 2020 general election, the BC Liberals have shown they can win again, albeit in very friendly territory. Moreover, the BC Liberals gain a potential ..read more

Premier John Horgan called a by-election in Surrey South for September 10th.  What happens in a by-election, anyway?  For a brief time, all of the political parties are focused organizationally on one place because someone resigned, died, or, worse yet, was recalled.  By-elections usually have low voter turnout and may appear to average voters to have little consequence to their daily lives. The host riding is deluged with professional campaigners and out-of-town volunteers that door knock the riding like never before then, when it’s over, they all go home.   ..read more

Published in the Vancouver Sun, July 19/2022 It’s one of the oddities of our parliamentary system, that someone can become premier without first facing the voters as leader in the trial by fire of an election campaign. The pending retirement of Premier John Horgan means a new leader chosen solely by the members of the NDP will go straight to the top job.  John Horgan chairing the Council of Federation meetings, July 2022 Changing premiers has happened between elections many times and for a variety of reasons. Retirement on their terms Since 1903, when the party system came to B.C., only a ..read more

British Columbians went to the polls on October 17, 1991 and changed BC politics forever. It was the election of Premier Mike Harcourt’s NDP government and only the second time in BC history that the NDP had gained power. The election was hugely significant for the NDP as they governed for a decade. But its more profound impact was the realignment of the free enterprise vote in BC. Gordon Wilson, BC Liberal leader in 1991 breakthrough election. The Social Credit Party had governed for 36 of the previous 39 years, mostly with a Bennett at the helm. It had renewed itself during the first NDP ter ..read more

Published in Vancouver Sun, May 22 / 2021 B.C.’s electoral boundaries are about to be redrawn, increasing the size of the legislature yet again, while eroding representation in rural areas outside the faster-growing major cities. It’s a losing formula that causes continued bloat in the size of the legislature, while failing those in small communities around the province. Representation in BC: Let’s take time to think about this There are two issues at play and, if we untangle them, there is a better solution for the Electoral Boundaries Commission to consider: • Rural ridings need strong ..read more

It comes down to math: how slim is the margin and how many votes are outstanding? US election? No, we’re still Biden time waiting for the British Columbia final count. In the seven closest seats where BC Liberals are leading, two require a slight deviation from Election Day results to flip the results to the NDP – Vernon-Monashee and Abbotsford-Mission. Vernon-Monashee incumbent MLA Eric Foster leads by 0.9% while the pile of outstanding votes represents 31% of total ballots. Therefore, the NDP challenger needs to win the remaining pile by 2.1% to win (an overall swing of 3%). In Abbotsford-M ..read more