An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus i ..read more

High-dimensional climate data collected on a daily, monthly, or seasonal time step are now commonly used to predict crop yields worldwide with standard statistical models or machine learning models. Since the use of all available individual climate variables generally leads to calculation problems, over-fitting, and over-parameterization, it is necessary to aggregate the climate data used as predictors. However, there is no consensus on the best way to perform this task, and little is known about the impacts of the type of aggregation method used and of the temporal resolution of weather data ..read more

Meeting the anticipated 50% increase in global food demand by 2050 requires a crucial reassessment of agricultural practices, particularly in terms of nitrogen fertilizers inputs. This study analyzes the technical potential of nitrogen recovery from livestock manure and crop residues, bringing attention to the often-overlooked resource of digestate derived from anaerobic digestion. Our analysis highlights the significant capacity of the anaerobic digestion process, yielding approximately 234 ± 5 million metric tons (Mt) of nitrogen annually, sourced 93% from livestock manure and 7% from crop r ..read more

In the realm of weather forecasting, the implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents a transformative approach. However, AI weather forecasting method still faces challenges in accurately predicting meso- and smaller-scale processes and failing to directly capture extreme precipitation due to regression algorithm’s nature, coarse resolution, and limitations in key variables like precipitation. Therefore, we propose a state-of-the-art technology which integrates the strengths of the Pangu-weather AI weather forecasting with the traditional regional weather model, focusing specific ..read more

The United States (U.S.) Clean Air Act seeks to prevent and abate ambient air pollution, while also providing a framework to identify and address violations. Little research has examined where or how frequently violations of the Clean Air Act occur and how marginalized communities may bear a disproportionate share of these violations, despite the fact that marginalized communities experience persistent, disproportionate pollution levels and associated health impacts. Here, we leverage data on Clean Air Act enforcement and compliance together with demographic data to show that the most serious ..read more

This study conducts a comprehensive review of macroeconomic models within the Water, Energy, Food, and Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus, considering four different approaches: computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, integrated assessment models (IAMs), agent-based models (ABMs), and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Specifically, we examine how macroeconomic models represent not only the WEFE nexus as a whole but also its individual components and their combinations. Spanning a collection of 77 papers published in the last 20 years, this review underscores the prevalence of CGE ..read more

The Amazon basin plays a crucial role in the global hydrological cycle and the climate system. Removal of latent heat from the surface covered by the tropical forest through evapotranspiration is a key process that still requires further research due to the complex nature of the involved processes, lack of observations and different model assumptions. Here we present an assessment of the consistency between different latent heat fluxes datasets through an indirect comparison against the daily amplitude of surface temperature and vegetation status estimated from satellite observations. Our stud ..read more

The environmental gains of dietary change are often assessed in relation to average national diets, overlooking differences in individual consumption habits and people’s willingness to change. This study combines microdata on food intake and consumer behaviour to elicit the likely environmental gains of dietary shifts. We focus on the Netherlands owing to the country’s ambition to halve its dietary footprint by 2050. Linking food recall survey data from a cross-section of the population (n = 4313), life cycle inventory analysis for 220 food products, and behavioural survey data (n = 1233), we ..read more

Low carbon transition strategies of power plants are crucial to meet China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ targets. While the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, the ‘capital economic circles’ of China, is suffering from serious air pollution, air quality co-benefits of low carbon transition policies in electricity system in BTH area remain unclear. Here, we estimate the impacts of low carbon transition policies, including one BAU, six single and five combined scenarios, in electricity system in BTH area on installed power capacity, CO2 emissions, air quality and human health through 2060 based on open source ..read more

Extensive studies have demonstrated the spatiotemporal changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE) and its driving factors over the past three decades. However, how the global CUE will change and to what extent the CUE is affected by the dominant factor in this century is still unclear. Herein, based on CMIP6 model outputs, we estimated the situation and change trends of CUE in baseline (1982–2014) and future (2015–2100), and identified the controlling factor of CUE variation by boosted regression tree. Further, we predicted the CUE-controlling factor sensitivity (Svalue, referring to higher/lower ..read more