The U.S. employment data has been significantly overstated since 2022. The economy has not generated more full-time jobs for native Americans with all the reported increases either non-existent (later adjusted out of the data), part-time, or non-native Americans (importantly non-documented in America). The Fed is likely throwing in the towel, albeit slowly, on its higher interest rate policy (motivators include the commercial real estate crisis, growing banking issues, and government selling of $7 Trillion in Treasury debt this next year ..read more

California employment reporting adjustments show most of reported employment gains last year had to be adjusted substantially downward. In brief, reported employment increases of close to 300,000 had to be revised downward to only 50,000 actual. Across the U.S. food prices and oil prices again moving higher as keeping overall inflation expectations at a higher rather than lower range. Meanwhile, the leaders of the stock market rally are experiencing serious issues in term of their cash flows and valuation. Expectations for no Fed easing of interest rates gaining traction ..read more

Banks have run out of time to camouflage their substantial bad debt losses on commercial real estate as the price decline continues. Consumer confidence declining and likelihood of an official recession is increasing. Major stock indices and capital flows into the U.S. at highs while businesses try to increase prices to maintain present levels of profits….the big money is not made in buying or selling it’s made by waiting [for the impacts of all that is already in process ..read more

The contagion of U.S. commercial real estate just spread to Asia and Europe in a big way…with an estimated loss of $1.2 Trillion in office building market values more is certainly on the way. Meanwhile, the stock market is oblivious with flows of international money (thanks to the many wars), a European recession with Germany being ground zero, and large momentum funds juicing the Magnificant 7 FAANG stocks. It’s a great time to appreciate liquidity and safety while avoiding FOMO (fear of missing out). Additionally, there is a rapidly declining commercial real estate market and an increasing b ..read more

China’s Evergrande now entering bankruptcy which may force the sale of millions of homes and condos as well as total losses for international investors in China real estate related bonds. Both the Suez and Panama Canals seriously limited ship traffic but for different reasons. Inflation again increasing and the impact on interest rates will not be good for consumers or investors (in the stock or bond markets). So far, the BRIC’s countries want to out compete the U.S. but they prefer investing their funds in U.S. stocks and bonds…so far ..read more

Many revision to 2023 government reported indices understated the country’s economic health (employment seriously overstated and inflation understated). The commercial real estate market continues to collapse with the equivalent of 30 Empire State Building now vacant in NYC. The wars and threats of wars are driving up future inflation via escalating shipping fuel, crew costs, and sky high shipping insurance costs. China’s recessionary environment keep crude oil prices stable globally but that’s not good news for future economic growth anywhere ..read more

As stock and bond markets celebrate a friendlier sounding Federal Reserve it’s time to review the context. The quick change in tone of the Fed and the crashing commercial real estate markets are likely related. We enter 2024 with many Black Swan events threatening our well-being. Our focus on lessening personal financial risks in stock and bond provides a calmer backdrop for the holiday season knowing that our many 2023 economic issues are carrying over to 2024. The $Trillions injected into the U.S. economy during Covid resulting from Fed and Congressional support programs has maintained marke ..read more

3rd Quarter company sales and earnings were most disappointing! Once again, a small number of large companies counter-weighted the poor performance of the majority of companies and industries. Now the large companies, such as Apple, are facing lower sales prospects and can be expected to have magnified downside leverage on the stock market in a growing recessionary economy. A number of important leading indicators are warning of a difficult 2024 ..read more

A national commercial real estate crisis is picking up momentum with many landlords and banks facing historical financial losses. WeWork’s bankruptcy and Blackstone’s project by project defaults are adding hundreds of large commercial properties and many millions of square feet of office space to an already in-process crisis. Long term interest rates are expected to continue even higher as U.S. government long term bond auctions now reflect many traditionally large buyers walking away (and actually becoming sellers). The most recent 30-year Treasury bond auction required the Primary Dealers to ..read more

Interest rates and inflation continue as major issues for economic growth and family well-being. BRICS countries cutting back needed raw materials and threatening our EV industry. Nuclear power and cancelled pipeline plans coming back on the table. Preparing for a long-term war related economy ..read more