Unforced Variations: May 2024
RealClimate
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2w ago
New year, new open thread on climate topics. Note that summaries and updates to include 2023 data will be posted on the surface temperature graphics page and model-observations comparison page over the next couple of weeks as the data becomes available. … about Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO ..read more
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Unforced variations: Apr 2024
RealClimate
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1M ago
This year’s (2023) tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic and Caribbean witnessed a relatively high number of named tropical cyclones: 20. In spite of the current El Niño, which tends to give lower numbers. But it appears to follow a historical trend for named tropical cyclones with an … about 2023 appears to follow an upward trend in the North Atlantic/Caribbean named tropical cyclone count ..read more
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Much ado about acceleration
RealClimate
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1M ago
There has been a lot of commentary about perceived disagreements among climate scientists about whether climate change is, or will soon, accelerate. As with most punditry, there is less here than it might seem ..read more
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Unforced variations: March 2024
RealClimate
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2M ago
John Clauser's theory of climate explained. Some of you will have heard of John Clauser because he was an awardee of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics for his role in the experimental verification of quantum entanglement. Some of you will have heard of him because the first thing that he did … about Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs ..read more
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New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
RealClimate
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3M ago
A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course." The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here), but using rather different data and methods. The new … about New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course ..read more
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Unforced variations: Feb 2024
RealClimate
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3M ago
This month's open thread on climate topics. … about A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics ..read more
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Not just another dot on the graph?
RealClimate
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4M ago
As the climate monitoring groups add an additional dot to their graphs this week, there is some disquiet among people paying attention about just how extraordinary 2023 really was. … about Not just another dot on the graph ..read more
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Not just another dot on the graph? Part II
RealClimate
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4M ago
Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and 'corrected'), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the 2023 numbers was in line with the long term expectation from the models. … about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II ..read more
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Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
RealClimate
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4M ago
For the last few years (since at least 2016), I've shared predictions for the next annual global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the start of the year. Generally speaking, this has been quite skillful compared to persistence or just the long term trend alone - the eventual anomaly was consistently within the predicted bounds. … about Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO ..read more
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Unforced variations: Jan 2024
RealClimate
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5M ago
The latest contrarian crowd pleaser from is just the latest repetition of the old "it was the sun wot done it" trope[1] that Willie Soon and his colleagues have been pushing for decades. There is literally nothing new under the sun. … about The 5th International Conference on Regional Climate ..read more
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