Will Fusion or Fission power the world?
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
2M ago
Civilisation needs a long term reliable power source if it is to avoid eventual collapse. Renewable energy cannot achieve this because a) it is inherently unreliable and requires gas backup,  b) lasts less than 20 years yet requires huge areas of land/sea, and c) its renewal depends on steel, tarmac, plastics and heavy machinery.  Nuclear Energy on the other hand  is truly Zero Carbon neutral, lasts over 60 years and can if needed produce hydrogen, biofuel and recharge batteries at night. The development of Nuclear Energy in the UK was damaged by a bad press, Chernobyl,  an ..read more
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Global Temperatures for 2023
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
4M ago
December saw a rise in the global average temperature anomaly to 1.27C resulting in a final annual value of 1.13C for the year 2023. This represents an increase of just under 0.3C  since 2022, the warmest year so far (as widely reported). My calculation is based on spherical triangulation and uses GHCN corrected land data and the latest HadCRUT3 sea surface temperature data. It is the same basic data as used by all groups (Berkeley, Hadley/CRU, NASA etc.) Here is the data for the full year 2023 Annual global temperature anomalies updated for 2023 The monthly data shows just how changeab ..read more
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Protected: Whatever happened to the Hiatus in Global Warming ?
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
5M ago
This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below: Password ..read more
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Richard Betts/Met Office warming Indicator
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
6M ago
The Met Office are proposing to use a 10 year average temperature indicator to define when and if the 1.5 degree since industrial periods will be exceeded. The pre-industrial period is defined as 1850-1900 which is different from  the 1961- 1990 baseline that are used for calculating station anomalies because this maximises the available station count. The offset for the preindustrial period is consequentially based on  these anomaly values  before 1900.  A comparison of the latest HadCRUT5 with my Spherical triangulation results shows an  almost perfect agreement bet ..read more
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Temperature update for Oct 2023 is 1.1C
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
6M ago
A little late but here is my update on the global temperatures for October 2023, The method used is always by spherical triangulation. Temperature fell from the peak in September of 1.49 to 1.29 in October. Temperatures for November showing a cool area off Chile below a continuing El Nino These are the monthly temperature trends Monthly temperatures 2010 – Nov 2023 The annual average temperature for 2023 with just 2 months to go is 1.09C for 2023 Annual temperature trends updated for October 2023 compared to the underlying decadal trends. I am convinced the decadal trends are calculated ..read more
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Direct evidence that CO2 forcing alone determines Global Temperatures
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
6M ago
The well known result that CO2 radiative forcing is approximately 5.3 Ln (C/CO) [1] is confirmed here by comparing decadal global temperature anomalies with CO2 concentrations. Positive feedbacks are not needed to explain the observed warming. A value of Transient Climate Response of 1.6C is observed to confirm this. The Moana Loa CO2 measurements when combined with earlier estimates of emissions show that CO2 concentrations have essentially been increasing exponentially  since before 1955.  As a result we would expect resultant temperatures to  increase linearly with time [see ..read more
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Deducing Climate Sensitivity from Decadal Temperature Data
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
7M ago
The transient climate sensitivity (TCR) is the observed average warming of the earth following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Effectively this means the observed average temperature when CO2 levels reach 560 PPM. The current average level of CO2 is 415 PPM and we measure the effective temperature of the earth each month relative to a normalised 30 year average. These average temperature anomalies vary from month to month and year to year due to internal effects like El Nino or Volcanoes. This September was the highest recorded temperature anomaly, but this does not mean that temp ..read more
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September’s Global Temperature was 1.44C
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
7M ago
September’s global average temperature was 1.44C. This beat the previous record high monthly temperature recorded in September 2016 (1.22C). There was a strong El Nino , and the Americas, Europe and Antarctica were all warmer than usual.  Here is an animation of the temperature anomalies A strong El Nino has developed and but what is more particularly apparent is strong warming in Antarctica which usually remains isolated and cool. This makes makes me wonder if sub surface volcanic activity is to blame. Here are the updated monthly data. Monthly temperature anomalies updated f ..read more
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Power generation Summer 2023
Clive Best Blog
by Clive Best
9M ago
Most of this summer saw variable weather and short spells of windy conditions across the UK, followed by a very hot spell at the beginning of September with little to no wind. The consequent sudden changes in wind power output needs flexible backup which can realistically only be provided with Gas power stations.  So let’s see how the National Grid coped with providing sufficient power to keep the lights on, and what lessons can be learned. Power generation by fuel type. Solar is an estimate from University of Sheffield. Wind power is also corrected to include non metered wind farms. (cl ..read more
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July 2023 “Global Boiling” Panic
Clive Best Blog
by John Carr
9M ago
Exaggerated claims of unusual temperatures Summer 2023 saw a great deal of media fuss about excessive temperatures using plots such as figure 1, from the website Climate Reanalyzer. This display shows that the temperature on 4 July 2023 was 17.2°C, 1°C higher than the 1979-2000 average. This has been interpreted as corresponding to an extremely unlikely probability of 1/3.5 million, indicating imminent danger for humans. A very disturbing event in this climate alarmism was a speech by the Directeur General of the United Nations, António Guterres, saying in July 2023: ‘”The era of global w ..read more
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