Portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Talley Léger
1y ago
In response to numerous client questions about portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario, we provide a historical perspective on stock market, sector, size, style and regional allocations. Also, we juxtapose typical recovery performance trends against recent price action. At present, we observe that some performance trends – for now, at least – do hint at a potential recovery, including the recent outperformance of stocks relative to bonds, cyclical sectors relative to defensive ones and small market capitalization stocks relative to their large counterparts. However, some other trends sug ..read more
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Where do stocks and bonds go from here?
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Kristina Hooper
1y ago
In last week’s blog, members of Invesco’s Global Market Strategy (GMS) team in Hong Kong, Italy, London, Tokyo and New York shared their on-the-ground insights of the fight against coronavirus from a health care, monetary, and fiscal perspective. Today, we take a deeper dive into the potential implications of the pandemic on U.S. stocks and bonds, as well as the GMS team’s view of asset allocation considerations. Q. What technical indicators can help determine if the U.S. equity market is getting closer to a bottom? Talley Léger (New York): In a challenging market environment like this, I beli ..read more
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Solutions: Heading into an uncertain 2019, diversification must be top-of-mind
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Duy Nguyen
1y ago
Key takeaways The road ahead is expected to be challenging due to a variety of factors: rising global interest rates, increased volatility, diverging global monetary policies, and heightened geopolitical tensions around trade and tariffs. Our forecasts for returns are tepid across the major asset classes. There remain pockets of opportunities within asset classes. Heading into 2019, the market’s resiliency is likely to be tested by evolving geopolitical tensions and questions regarding the ability of a late stage economy to grow. Volatility is expected to remain elevated as the markets seek ..read more
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Tactical Asset Allocation – July 2020
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Alessio de Longis
1y ago
Our macro regime framework continues to indicate the global economy is likely moving into a recovery regime, confirming our expectation of an inflection in the business cycle. By and large, recent global economic data releases have shown signs of stabilization as most economies have begun the reopening process. Over the past two months, indicators from consumer confidence to retail sales, business surveys and industrial orders suggest modest improvements off the bottom readings registered in April when the most stringent lockdown measures were in effect. The improvement in economic data is mos ..read more
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Tactical asset allocation — January 2021 recap
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Alessio de Longis
1y ago
Global recovery begins to mature, leading to expansion Macro update The year 2020 will certainly go down in history as one of the most disruptive to societies around the world, with enduring social and economic consequences for years to come. 2020 will also be a record-breaking year in financial markets’ history, with stories and anecdotes to be told to future generations of investors. It was the year when oil prices traded to -38 U.S. dollars per barrel,1 or when the worst global recession in history was accompanied by a market sell-off lasting only four weeks, just to name a few. Financial ..read more
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Near-term pullback, long-term uptrend
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Talley Léger
1y ago
On March 13, 2020, we began talking1 and writing2 about a series of tactical market bottom indicators3 that showed signs of extreme risk-off positioning, which were positive from a contrarian perspective. One of those indicators was the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) equity put/call ratio. Little did we know it at the time, but ten days later, the S&P 500 Index would put in what now appears to be a major low for the cycle.   What is the CBOE equity put/call ratio and why does it matter?   The put/call ratio is a measure of seller (put) relative to buyer (cal ..read more
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Burgeoning ‘green shoots’ bring hope for an economic recovery
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Kristina Hooper
1y ago
The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009. Like everybody else, I was looking for signs of economic life after the global financial crisis and searching for indications that the U.S. and other developed countries were rising out of the economic ashes like a phoenix. And now, 11 years later, I find myself again looking for – and finding – encouraging signs of recovery in the U.S. and other major developed countries. In this week’s blog, I focus on some of the green shoots that I’ve seen in the last several weeks.   U.S.: The May jobs report stuns ..read more
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Economic data shows improvement, but infection rates prove difficult to control
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Kristina Hooper
1y ago
Two weeks ago, I wrote about some burgeoning “green shoots” that offered early, encouraging signs of economic recovery around the world. I’m pleased to see that more green shoots are sprouting – we continue to receive positive economic news as developed world economies progress in their re-openings. However, I’m also keeping an eye on some negative signs that could cause disruption.   Positive signs Last week we learned that in the U.S., May retail sales rose a whopping 17.7% from the previous month.1 This was the biggest increase on record and far exceeded expectations – a very substanti ..read more
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Video: U-shaped recovery would be enough for bonds
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Matt Brill
1y ago
The markets have been pretty vulnerable over the last few months, but they’ve started to settle down over the past month and a half. I believe a lot of the credit for this lies with incredible liquidity provided by central banks around the world.   In the following short video, I address how central banks are serving as a backstop to the bond market, and how this could benefit fixed income investors.       The post Video: U-shaped recovery would be enough for bonds appeared first on Invesco Canada blog ..read more
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Where do portfolio managers see opportunities in today’s environment?
Invesco Canada Blog » Asset Allocation
by Kristina Hooper
1y ago
The three-pronged fight against COVID-19 and its economic impact continues. Central banks are providing monetary policy support to keep banks and markets functioning, national governments are providing fiscal policy support to consumers and businesses, and governments at all levels are taking public health policy steps to contain the spread of the virus. (Not to mention the tireless dedication of the health care workers on the front lines and the scientists searching for treatments and vaccines.)   Of course, each policy decision in this fight has consequences for stocks, bonds, commoditi ..read more
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