Comparing the Greens vote in Brisbane in 2022 and 2024
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
1d ago
There’s been a lot of discussion comparing the recent City of Brisbane council election to the 2022 federal election. Both elections saw a high Greens vote. At the federal election, the Greens won three seats in the inner city of Brisbane, something which exceeded expectations. Expectations were higher at the council election, with talk of the Greens winning up to six wards. The Greens did gain a swing, and won a second ward, but the eventual results didn’t quite meet expectations. There are quite a few differences between the two elections which plays into the different outcomes – a lower Lab ..read more
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Podcast #117: Tasmania elects a hung parliament
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
3d ago
Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to wrap up the Tasmanian state election. We discuss the close undecided races, what might come next for parliamentary negotiations, and what it means for May’s upper house election. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support. This podcast is sponsored by Zencastr. Use my special link to save 30% off your first month of any Zencastr paid plan. You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to ..read more
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Tasmania 2024 – Sunday morning wrap-up
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
5d ago
There’s still a bunch of votes to count, and preferences will need to be distributed before some seats are decided, but there’s still a lot to say. There was a very clear shift away from Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal Party, who have suffered a swing of 11.9%, but little of that went to Labor, who have only gained a swing of 1%. The Greens also experienced a small gain, and this slightly increased vote combined with a lower quota puts the Greens in a position to win a bunch of extra seats. A majority of the swing went to the Jacqui Lambie Network, who look set to win a number of seats. There was al ..read more
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Tasmanian election night
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
6d ago
Polls have just closed for the Tasmanian state election. Polls will also close in the Dunstan state by-election in South Australia in half an hour. I won’t be liveblogging here tonight because I’ll be appearing on air on ABC Radio’s election night broadcast. You can hear it on ABC Hobart and ABC Northern Tasmania local radio, as well as ABC News Radio. The show will start at 7:30pm. While I won’t be posting here, feel free to chat about the results in the comments. One last bit of analysis before the results come in: the TEC announced a record number of pre-poll votes cast in 2024, while posta ..read more
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Early voting trends in Tasmanian elections
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
1w ago
As has become a regular story, there was an uptick in voters choosing to vote using other methods than turning up at a regular polling place to vote at the last Tasmanian state election. Tasmania’s voters have been less likely to switch away from election day voting than in most other jurisdictions, but the direction of travel is the same. Just under two thirds of voters in 2021 cast their votes at a polling place in their electorate. There was a slight uptick in postal voting, but pre-poll voting almost doubled. It’s also worth looking at the relative strengths of the parties in each vote ty ..read more
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Podcast #116: Wrapping up Queensland’s local elections
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
1w ago
Ben is joined by Maggie Perry from 6 News Australia to discuss the results of council elections and by-elections in Queensland. We mostly focus on the Brisbane City Council results, and also touch on the results of the two state by-elections and other local council elections. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support. This podcast is sponsored by Zencastr. Use my special link to save 30% off your first month of any Zencastr paid plan. You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS fe ..read more
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Brisbane City – next day wrap-up
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
1w ago
For this post, I’m not going to dwell too much on individual races and where they are up to, but instead look at broader trends. I’ll do another post today or tomorrow about the close races and what we’re waiting to see. There were quite a few votes that weren’t counted last night. Almost 600,000 votes were counted for the lord mayoral election, but barely 450,000 primary votes were counted for the council election, and only about 60% of those votes had preferences distributed. Overall the story is simple. The LNP’s vote largely stood still, while there was a substantial swing from Labor to th ..read more
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Brisbane City election night live
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
1w ago
7:23 – Pullenvale is an interesting ward worth watching in Brisbane City. Kate Richards was a former LNP councillor who quit the party and was defeated in her independent candidacy in 2020. She came third, with the Greens coming in the top two. This time around she’s running again and is preferencing the Greens. The first booth there is Upper Brookfield, and there’s a primary vote swing of about 10% away from Richards and to the LNP, which isn’t a great sign for the Greens there. 7:20 – There’s also big primary vote swings in the Ipswich West booths of Raymonds Hill and Rosewood, but nothing l ..read more
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Mapping intra-party booth results in Tasmania
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
2w ago
In yesterday’s post I explored some of the intra-party dynamics you get under Hare-Clark when multiple candidates from the same party are competing. In this post I wanted to map out the relative strength of different candidates from within a single party across an electorate. There’s some similarities in style to this post I did for the last ACT election in 2020. Competition between candidates within a party isn’t just a matter of self-interested candidates trying to overtake each other. There are strategic benefits for the party. Let’s take a scenario where a party has polled 2.4 quotas, spli ..read more
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How often do Tasmanian MPs lose their seats?
The Tally Room
by Ben Raue
2w ago
One of the almost unique features of Tasmania’s Hare-Clark electoral system is the potential for voters to choose individual candidates over others in the same party, and on occasion achieve the outcome of an individual MP losing their seat to a fellow member of the same party. Even when that doesn’t happen, it’s common that multiple members of the same party are competing for the same seat. While there are quite a few proportional electoral systems in Australia, most of them feature “above the line” voting, which effectively imposes a party list element. If a party wins three seats, the first ..read more
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