The result of the Dunkley by-election was declared last month, but as usual it has taken a couple of weeks for the the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) to finalise and release its full suite of election statistics on the by-election. This post wraps up the final figures, looking at turnout, preference flows by candidate and result by vote type. In short, the by-election saw a normal change in turnout, the pattern of vote by type was normal, and the pattern of preferences flows was normal. The by-election produced an overall swing of 3.5% which is on par with an average by-election swing ..read more

Today, Saturday 6 April, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will finalise the distribution of preferences for last month’s Tasmanian election. Counts were completed in Clark and Franklin yesterday with all seven vacancies filled and members formally declared elected. Three seats remain to be declared in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. You can check the overall election result summary at this link, or my posts following the distribution of preferences over the last week for each seat using the links below. Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons The final three seats in ..read more

Updated : 8:30pm Wednesday 3 April This post summarises the election results. See posts on individual seats for more details on the count. Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons Summary of Seats Won By Party LIB ALP GRN JLN IND Total Declared Elected 3 2 1 .. .. 6 Projected 10 8 4 3 2 27 Likely 1 .. .. .. .. 1 Current totals 14 10 5 3 2 34 Likely Seat – the Liberal Party look likely to win a third seat in Franklin ahead of the second Green but enough doubt remains to not project this as a Liberal win. In Doubt Seat – the final seat in Braddon in a con ..read more

Update: End of Counting Wednesday night Elected and Projected Members Re-elected 1 – Rebecca White (Labor) Jen Butler (Labor) – to be confirmed Guy Barnett (Liberal) – to be confirmed Jane Howlett (Liberal) – to be confirmed Mark Shelton (Liberal) – to be confirmed Tabatha Badger (Greens) – to be confirmed One of the Jacqui Lambie candidates will win the final seat – to be confirmed Defeated – John Tucker (Independent) Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin Table updates inside post. Totals after Count 20 – end of Wednesday counting There was a significant leakage out of the Labor ..read more

Update: End of counting Wednesday 3 April Elected and Projected Members Re-elected 1 – Roslaie Woodruff (Greens) Eric Abetz (Liberal) – to be confirmed Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal) – to be confirmed Dean Winter (Labor) – to be confirmed Meg Brown or Toby Thorpe to be second Labor candidate – to be confirmed David O’Byrne (Independent) – to be confirmed Nic Street likely to be the third Liberal candidate though there remains an outside chance of the Greens winning a second seat – to be determined Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! ! Lyons Table updates inside post. Totals after Count 20 ..read more

Update: End of counting Wednesday 3 April Elected and Projected Members Ella Haddad (Labor) – to be confirmed Josh Willie (Labor) – to be confirmed Simon Behrakis (Liberal) – to be confirmed Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal) – to be confirmed Vica Bayley (Greens) – to be confirmed Helen Burnet (Greens) – to be confirmed Kristie Johnston (Independent) to be confirmed Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Franklin ! Lyons Table updates inside post. Totals after Count 17 – end of Wednesday counting Sixteen candidates have been excluded so far without a candidate reaching the quota, Labor’s Ella Haddad may ..read more

Updated: End of Counting Wednesday 3 April Elected and Projected Members Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal) Re-elected 2 – Felix Ellis (Liberal) Roger Jaensch (Liberal) – to be confirmed Anita Dow (Labor) – to be confirmed Shane Broad (Labor) – to be confirmed A Jacqui Lambie Network candidate – to be confirmed Contest between 4th Liberal, Greens Darren Briggs and Independent Craig Garland – winner to be confirmed Other Updates: Bass ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons Table updates inside post. Totals after Count 33 – end of Wednesday counting The final seat in Braddon remains in doubt. Libera ..read more

Update 1: End of counting Wednesday 3 April Elected and Projected Members Re-elected 1 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal) Re-elected 2 – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor) Rob Fairs (Liberal) – to be confirmed Simon Wood (Liberal) – to be confirmed Janie Finlay (Labor) – to be confirmed Cecily Rosol (Greens) – to be confirmed Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network) – to be confirmed Defeated – Lara Alexander (Independent) Other Updates: Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons Table updates inside post. Totals after Count 24 Both Michael Ferguson (Liberal) and Michelle O’Byrne (Labor) have been re-elected. Three ..read more

10am today is the close-off time for receipt of Tasmanian election postal votes. After these votes have been added to the count, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will begin an amalgamation count, where ballot papers by candidate by polling place are amalgamated into bundles of ballot papers by candidate by electorate. Once amalgamation is complete, the Electoral Commission will begin distributing preferences. Over the next few days I will have a dedicated post for each division where I will summarise the progress of the 2024 count. To visualise how the distribution of preferences takes place ..read more

In this post I go through last night’s Tasmanian election result to try and get a better handle on the final outcome. The full picture won’t emerge until after the full distribution of preferences begins on the Tuesday after Easter. A comment on the overall results. With 83.5% counted (final turn out will be about 90%), the Liberal Party are polling 36.8% of the first preference vote, down 11.9% on 2021. Labor polled 29.2% (+1.0%), Greens 13.4% (+1.1%), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6.7% (up from zero), single Independents 8.2% (+3.0%) and other parties 5.7% (+0.1%). The seat numbers are – Libera ..read more