Canada Up Close | 18 Apr 2024 More pain still to come from the mortgage payment shock | Canada Up Close Callee Davis Economist, Canada Total mortgage payments surged after the Bank of Canada began aggressively hiking interest rates in early 2022. In this month’s video, Callee Davis, Economist, discusses why we believe there is more pain still to come from the mortgage payment shock in Canada. Research Briefing More pain still to come for Canada from the mortgage payment shock Mortgage payments have soared since the Bank of Canada began aggressively hiking interest rates in ear ..read more

Consulting Report 18 Apr 2024 Global Trade Education: The role of private philanthropy Commissioned by Hinrich Foundation The expansion of international trade has brought economic growth and prosperity to large parts of the developing world. Achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals will depend on how countries manage their participation in global trade. An important underlying condition is the presence of management skills and high-quality leadership, often underrepresented in developing economies. In this report, we explore the human dimension of the trade-developmen ..read more

Consulting Report 18 Apr 2024 Mapping the Plastics Value Chain: A framework to understand the socio-economic impacts of a production cap on virgin plastics Commissioned by The International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA) In March 2022, the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) decided to forge a legally binding international instrument to end plastic pollution. One option in the current draft instrument text considers the implementation of a global production cap on virgin primary plastic polymers. The global plastics and chemical industry, represented by the Internationa ..read more

Consulting Report 16 Apr 2024 The Economic Contribution of Mexico’s Audiovisual Industry Commissioned by the Motion Picture Association Based on our detailed analysis of Mexico’s economy, we estimate that in 2022, the audiovisual’s direct economic impact amounted to a MXN$138.7 billion contribution to domestic GDP and over 77,000 jobs. The audiovisual sector directly creates more GDP in Mexico than that generated by the manufacturing of computers. The sector also supported significant tax payments for the Mexican government. We estimate that the industry directly supported MXN$19.2 bil ..read more

Back to Resource Hub Research Briefing | Apr 17, 2024 Eurozone: Little sign of harm from the Red Sea disruptions The impact of Red Sea shipping disruption on the eurozone economy continues to be limited, in line with our baseline view. Our new Eurozone Supply Stress Indicator suggests that supply pressures have returned to normal following a period of easing in 2023. What you will learn: In our original assessment, we had assumed shipping rates on the affected routes would rise around 200% and settle at this level for six months. Encouragingly, shipping rates have eased slightly from Janua ..read more

Blog | 16 Apr 2024 How Canada’s wildfires could affect American house prices Sarah Nelson Senior Economist, Economics & Sustainability Flames tore through Canada’s forests in 2023, burning an area twice the size of Portugal between early Spring and late Autumn. The Canadian wildfires had devastating human and environmental impacts, and caused a major shock in the North American lumber market. Quebec, Alberta, and British Colombia, which account for almost 30% of North America’s lumber production, were all hit severely. As a result, the price of lumber rose by more than a third be ..read more

Techonomics Talks | 16 Apr 2024 How Asia’s supply chains are changing | Techonomics Talks Thang Nguyen Ph.D., Lead Economist, Macro Consulting Global supply chains have continued to expand, despite talk of deglobalisation and nearshoring. US and Japan have started to de-couple from China, but other G7 countries grow more dependent on Chinese inputs. Several “hotspots” are emerging across Asia with multiple winning formulas. In our latest Techonomics Talks video, Thang Nguyen-Quoc, Lead Economist, examines the deglobalisation myth and how Asia’s supply chains are changing. Click h ..read more

In the media | 16 Apr 2024 Global Economy: ICAEW’s Chief Economist Scott Livermore on oil output strategy, economic diversification importance for GCC growth plans Scott Livermore, Chief Economist and Managing Director at Oxford Economics, examines the intricate dynamics of the GCC economies. Focusing on the impact of oil output cuts, the pivotal sectors fueling non-oil growth and the influx of foreign investments into regional markets. Scott Livermore also sheds light on the region’s ambitious green energy initiatives and the strategic role sovereign bonds will play in accelerating the ..read more

In the media | 16 Apr 2024 The Business Magazine: Report reveals ‘True Impact’ of manufacturing is much bigger than thought In a joint report with the Manufacturing Technologies Association (MTA), we examine how manufacturing impacts the UK economy. Our findings show that ‘making things’ accounts for 34.5 per cent of all UK goods and services exports, whilst the median wage is £31,300 – 11 per cent higher than the national median wage. Read the full article below: To explore our latest research, consulting reports and blog posts from our team of experts, on the topics that matter to you ..read more

Back to Resource Hub Research Briefing | Apr 16, 2024 Indonesia rate cuts will bolster credit demand, with pockets of risks We forecast Bank Indonesia will start cutting its policy rate in Q2, which will provide a cyclical tailwind for credit growth and consequently domestic demand, as lower real lending rates will help boost loan demand. What you will learn: Demand for consumer loans remains historically high as households struggle to make ends meet due to low earnings, even though they now face less pressure from high inflation. We think labour market conditions will remain poor this yea ..read more