The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% at its meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected, while continuing its restrictive monetary policy of quantitative tightening. But the central bank made a marked shift in its statement, turning from a focus on inflation to one on growth with a decidedly dovish tone. The Bank of Canada is taking the cautious approach in waiting for evidence of ..read more

The Bank of Canada will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged when it meets this week, but the tone of its statement will shift to dovish as bank officials recognize easing inflation, the slowing labour market and stagnant growth. We expect that the central bank’s first rate cut will occur in June and that there will be a total of four this year, each one of 25 basis points ..read more

To see why rate cuts are coming in Canada, look no further than the March job report. The unemployment rate reached 6.1%, surpassing 6% for the first time in over two years, according to Statistics Canada on Friday. While Canada has added more than 300,000 jobs over the past year, including a loss of 2,200 in March, the working-age population has grown by more than a million ..read more

Canada’s economy is facing a carbon emissions squeeze. Even as it makes progress in meeting its carbon reduction goals by 2030, Canada is not moving fast enough. To get there, Canada needs to vastly amplify investments in renewables to cut emissions while enabling economic growth. Failing to do so risks being left behind in a global economy that is rapidly moving to a more competitive ..read more

Canada’s housing supply has faced chronic shortages in recent years as households and the economy are held back by a lack of available and affordable places to live. Many proposals have been offered, from overhauling regulations to bolstering financial incentives. But one factor often gets overlooked: the construction itself. To build housing more efficiently and inexpensively would help ..read more

Canada’s consumer price index fell to 2.8% February, marking the second consecutive month of decline and bolstering the case for the Bank of Canada to cut rates. The decline wasn’t limited to just the headline number. Core measures of inflation eased as well: Trimmed CPI, which excludes extreme price movements, fell to 3.2%, and median CPI, which measures the 50th percentile of price changes ..read more

February’s jobs report for Canada did little to sway the Bank of Canada’s likelihood to begin cutting rates in June. The data released on Friday continues to send mixed messages to those who make monetary policy, a recurring theme for the past six months as the economy hangs on but does not grow. The job market is tipping into an employers’ market as the unemployment rate climbed back up ..read more

The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 5% for the fifth time in a row as it continued to wait for inflation to further moderate. Canada is in the home stretch in its path to price stability. It will be a few more months before the first rate cut, which we expect to occur in June. There are ample signs that monetary policy is working. January’s headline inflation number fell below ..read more

The Canadian economy seems to have bottomed out and be on the rebound, growing by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of last year and by 1% on an annualized basis, exceeding expectations. The growth gives the Bank of Canada time to see more sustained evidence of inflation moderation before cutting rates. The first rate cut most likely will occur in June. A hold at 5% at the announcement next week is ..read more

Canada’s consumer price index report for January brought good news for consumers, businesses and the Bank of Canada alike. CPI dropped to 2.9%, led by lower year-over-year figures in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, prices stayed flat. Consumers breathed a sigh of relief as grocery prices grew at 3.4%, the slowest pace since 2021. All core inflation measures also showed moderation ..read more