The active weather pattern continues. At the NWS office we’re asking each other, “when is it going to stop? I’m so done with it.” There are some things you can’t do outside when its rainy or even drizzly. Today is nice, but things go back into the gray and rainy, stormy regime Tuesday and Wednesday. For northern and central California, it’s not looking favorable to avoid problems or disaster. Daniel Swain of UCLA highlights it for us. Another strong storm may bring even more substantial and widespread flooding & wind-related impacts late Mon-Tue ..read more

Want to forecast the weather in San Diego? You’d better have nerves and a sense of humor. Meteorologist Miguel Miller’s new book explains the nature of everything from Santa Ana winds to “June gloom” and how forecasters predict what will unfold in Southern California. BY GARY ROBBINS Years ago, an aquaintance asked Miguel Miller what he did for a living, not long after he had started working at the National Weather Service in San Diego. “I forecast the weather here,” he said. She quickly replied: “Is this where they send the beginner meteorologists?” Miller, 55, chuckled at the memory rec ..read more

Here’s an update from Daniel Swain, climate scientist from of UCLA about the atmospheric rivers poised to hit the state in the next couple days and again next week. https://weatherwest.com/archives/24693 But take a look at the last section, where he comments on “A brief reflection on communicating risk to diverse audiences.” We have so much good, accurate information coming together when forecasters need to communicate risk and what’s going to happen, often in probabilistic terms. Unfortunately, so much misinformation and misinterpretation gets into the mix, that people may not take something ..read more

Back in 2017 when I began work on this book, I didn’t think it would take 5-6 years to complete it and publish it. But here we are! The Remarkable Weather of Southern California: Its Science and Subtleties has been published and is on the market, at least at Amazon and iUniverse.com/en/bookstore . I hope this book finds a home in libraries across the region (and world?) from city and county public libraries, school libraries at all levels, and most hopefully, colleges and universities. Tell your weather geek friends all about it! https://www.iuniverse.com/en/bookstore/bookdetails/841354-the-r ..read more

Extreme heat this week will begin to take a back seat to: 1) strong winds and fire danger, 2) downslope extreme warming near the coast and 3) heavy rain possibly leading to flash flooding. It’s a cornucopia of weather these days. Daniel Swain of UCLA explains all these things pretty well. Check out his blog: https://weatherwest.com/archives/17401 ..read more

Hot weather will continue this coming week, but you probably already knew that. Daniel Swain of UCLA explains why, and pontificates about the coming month in the temperature and fire weather department. https://weatherwest.com/archives/17179 ..read more

We had a decent heat wave in April, then another one in May. On schedule is what could be our only heat wave in June. They have all lasted only a couple days. In recent years, this level and duration of heat represents a trend downward in intensity and duration of heat waves. We’ll take it. With the drought intensifying this winter and spring and the early start to lots of wildfires statewide, we understandably feel a bit worried about the summer and fall with regard to heat and wildfires. Rain in Northern California and few short-duration heat waves has put big wildfires on the back burner. M ..read more

The storm for Monday into Tuesday in SoCal is looking pretty good. At the NWS San Diego, we’re forecasting greater amounts (trending wetter) with seemingly each model run (see the 24 March graphic below for the storm 28-29 March). That’s all well and good, and we can sing in the rain for a day or two. But we are moving swiftly out of the wet season, certainly out of the Sierra snow season, and the prospects for more winter storms are evaporating. Proportionally, we’re on a collision course for severe or extreme drought. The spring outlook doesn’t look great. Climate scientist Daniel Swain exp ..read more

Let me get this out of the way up front: No. The driest January and February across two-thirds of the state has almost guaranteed that the deficit will be too hard to make up, even if we do get a “March Miracle.” While San Diego County is not as bad off as the rest of the state, the prospects don’t look good for any of us in California. It’s not looking like a March miracle will materialize. The drought needle will start redlining again this spring. Daniel Swain of UCLA explains why, in his Weather West blog: https://weatherwest.com/archives/13480 ..read more

When will the rain and snow come back? Week after week, and it’s been about five weeks now since a respectable rain, the dry weather continues. It’s been a dry offshore pattern to be sure: a stationary ridge along the West Coast and shortwaves moving down the interior West one after another like a parade. Each wave boosts our offshore winds as we’ve seen every other day for a while now. The ridge shows no signs of moving through at least next weekend (2/12-13), but a look at this morning’s models show possibly, perhaps, maybe a shift in the longwave pattern that could nudge that ridge aside an ..read more