Podcast: Economic Recession Maybe Around the Corner in the US and Europe Email Address: Sign Up Enter your email address to follow ECNFIN.com and receive notifications of new articles by email for free. Be the first to read and do not miss future timely research publications.   Inflationary pressures are becoming less transitory and more long-lasting. Even before the horrific events in Ukraine, inflation was already very high. Additional sanctions on Russia added additional fuel to the fire of already hot inflation. Sanctions on Russia will also have a significant negative economic ..read more

Podcast: Forecast the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the 1st Quarter 2022 Email Address: Sign Up Enter your email address to follow ECNFIN.com and receive notifications of new articles by email for free. Be the first to read and do not miss future timely research publications.   This is the forecast of the S&P 500 Index for the 1Q 2022. It is based on the linear regression model where I use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to predict the value of the S&P 500 Index. This forecast is trying to predict a general pattern, direction, of the stock market in the near f ..read more

Podcast: The analysis of the stock market volatility and ways to mitigate the risk. Enter your email address to follow ECNFIN.com and receive notifications of new articles by email for free. Be the first to read and do not miss future timely research publications.   Email Address: Sign Up Enter your email address to follow ECNFIN.com and receive notifications of new articles by email for free. Be the first to read and do not miss future timely research publications.   Abstract:  Oftentimes a successful investing requires the time commitment, ability, and wiliness to ..read more

Podcast: How will the new US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen effect the Economy and the Stock Markets? President elect Joe Biden nominated Janet Yellen as the 78th United States secretary of the treasury. In my opinion, Janet Yellen will support aggressive fiscal stimulus of the US economy at the beginning of her new job. Her prior experience as the chair of the Fed will create a bridge and very favorable relationship between the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell and the US Treasury Department. Both Yellen and Powell share similar interests in helping the economy and unemployment ..read more

Podcast: Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2021 This is my 9th annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. This forecast tends to predict a general pattern, direction, of the stock market in the future. When the forecast calls for a negative return, it is a warning sign. It means that the market is ahead of itself and may see a poor performance and volatility in the next 12 months. My forecast does not predict an absolute number rather it gives an overall feeling for the general direction of the stock market in the future.  The year ..read more

Podcast: Valuation of Government Bonds Current valuation of government bonds became expensive. In this paper, I compare the total return on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) with the real yield on the 10-year US treasury bonds. By investing in the long-term US government bonds when the real rates are negative, makes such investment speculative and risky.  The daily real yield on the 10-year US treasury bonds is at the historical lowest level. The real yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds was -0.96% on December 10, 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loui ..read more

Podcast: How did the international stock markets perform during the Covid-19 recession? The effect of the Covid-19 on the stock markets around the world was widespread. Most major equity markets around the world witnessed a steep decline in the stock prices. However, the degree of the stock market correction and recovery was different from one country to another. How did various stock markets around the world weather the Covid-19 pandemic?  The Covid-19 originated in Wuhan, China. By being the ground zero, you may expect the Chinese stock market to suffer the most from the Covid-19 pandem ..read more

Podcast: How much home can you afford to buy due to the decrease in interest rates? Analysis of today’s housing market. Listen and Subscribe to ECNFIN podcast episodes on: Apple Podcasts , Spotify, Google Podcasts Mortgage interest rates have been declining for the last 2 years. There is indirect relationship between the interest rate and home affordability. As rates decrease, the among of money one can borrow increases. With a significant decline in rates, home buyers can borrow more while keeping the monthly payments the same.  Mortgage rates have been in decline since Oc ..read more

Podcast 3: The Simple 50/50 Asset Allocation Model – Proven to Withstand the Financial Crisis of 2008 and Covid-19 Pandemic Listen and Subscribe to ECNFIN podcast episodes on: Apple Podcasts , Spotify, Google Podcasts The stock market in 2020 can be described as unexpected and highly volatile. With a sharp sell off in February-March to an equally impressive V-shaped recovery. High volatility increases anxiety and can force investors to make poor decisions about investments. Investors may not be able to control their emotions, but they can control how they invest. For risk averse ..read more

Podcast 2: Structural Wage Stagnation Causes Economic Weakness Wage stagnation is not a new phenomenon but a structural change in the US economy. Looking over the last 34 years, real income remained almost unchanged. Because of the wage stagnation economic growth in the US grew moderately. As disposable income remains relatively unchanged, people have little room to increase spending. Because of low spending growth, there is a limited upside potential for the economy to grow. At the same time, any disruptions to personal income can cause abrupt decline in consumer spending. Since consumer spen ..read more