The last economic data report that has the potential to change the tone of the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 30-May 1 is retail and food services sales at 8:30 ET on Monday. Sales were weaker in January and rose modestly in February. How the March number shapes consumer spending for the first quarter depends on a number of factors. Unit sales of motor vehicles were slightly softer in March, but the dollar value of sales may not be much changed. Gasoline prices rose in March, but some of this may be accounted for by seasonal adjustments since modest price rises are typical at this time of year ..read more

Global data on net are coming in right at expectations, at plus 1 and very near the zero line on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index. When excluding inflation, however, the index less prices (RPI-P) rises to 13 to indicate that inflation, on a global scale, is running cooler than expected and that real activity is running warmer than expected. A welcome combination. After dramatically underestimating US payrolls at the beginning of the month, forecasters have improved their aim with this country’s RPI at 3 and the RPI-P at minus 1. Yet an extension of as-expected results could, in an irony o ..read more

The three Fed district bank GDP nowcasts for the first quarter 2024 are fairly consistent in anticipating the advance estimate of real GDP set for release at 8:30 ET on Thursday, April 25. At 2-3 weeks from the release date, nowcasts tend to be set with little chance of much change. At this point the forecasts include the all-important employment report for all three months of the quarter. The most reliable of the three forecasts is the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow which looks for growth of 2.4 percent in the first quarter. This measure has a solid correlation of 0.980 with the advance estimate based ..read more

Market participants do not expect the ECB to lower key interest rates on Thursday. Since last month’s meeting, the Eurozone economy has gained some momentum but remains close to recession and inflation has fallen further. However, before delivering any full-blown ease the central bank will want to see June’s updated economic forecasts for confirmation that the March projections, which showed headline inflation below 2 percent and the core rate on target in 2026, are still valid. Consequently, for now, the deposit rate should be held at 4.0 percent, the refi rate at 4.5 percent and the rate on ..read more

With the employment data out of the way and showing ongoing strength in the labor market through March, attention will turn to inflation numbers. The March consumer price index (CPI) at 8:30 ET on Wednesday is expected to show similar upward price pressure after February’s 0.4 percent month-over-month gain and 3.2 percent year-over-year rate. The core CPI was also up 0.4 percent in February from January and up 3.8 percent compared to a year earlier. If upward price pressure on food prices has abated, energy prices – particularly for gasoline – continued to rise in March. Other commodities pric ..read more

Global data continue to exceed forecasts at 21 on the Relative Performance Index (RPI) and 26 less prices (RPI-P) to indicate tangible outperformance especially for the real economy. These results are a bit firmer than the prior week’s respective RPI and RPI-P scores of 16 and 21. China is now the center of the RPI’s strength, at 79 overall and 75 for the RPI-P. There has been some speculation that the People’s Bank of China is considering introducing quantitative easing to stimulate demand but on current trends it might not be needed. Canada also continues to exceed forecasts though March’s d ..read more

The big question for the April 1 week relates to the underlying conditions for the US labor market. Will the change in nonfarm payrolls in March close out the first quarter 2024 at a continued strong pace and will the unemployment rate remain consistent with a tight labor market? Early forecasts for nonfarm payrolls in March look for an increase in the 175,000-200,000 range. So far for the first quarter 2024, the monthly average is 252,000 compared to monthly averages of 201,000, 216,000, and 212,000 in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2023, respectively. A March increase toward the l ..read more

Global data are continuing to exceed forecasts ending last week at 16 on the Relative Performance Index (RPI) and rising a bit further to 21 when excluding price data (RPI-P) to indicate tangibly greater-than-expected strength in real activity. These results are only slightly less favorable than the prior week’s respective RPI and RPI-P scores of 23 and 26. First quarter data from the Eurozone continue to surprise mainly on the upside but not by much. At 3, the latest readings on both the RPI and RPI-P show overall economic activity currently performing much as expected. And this should be mor ..read more

Few data reports are likely to be market movers in the March 25 week. Some of the data will close out early looks at conditions for the manufacturing and service sectors in the first quarter 2024. Some will take the temperature of consumers’ optimism – or pessimism – for March and hint at whether consumer spending could support growth in the first quarter. Some will only provide data for February for an incomplete picture of the housing sector in the first quarter. GDP data set for release at 8:30 ET on Thursday will be the third and final estimate of growth for the fourth quarter 2024. We won ..read more

Economic data proved much better than expected last week, lifting the global economy’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) to 23 for the best score since the outset of 2024. Inflation data aren’t skewing the results which hold at 26 less prices (RPI-P). Significant upside surprises in China’s data boosted this country’s RPI to 50 and the RPI-P to 60 and paved the way for the PBoC to leave the benchmark 1-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.45 percent. However, continued outperformance will be needed if policy rates are not to be lowered again over coming months. Following downside surprises in la ..read more