As should be clear from the timestamps on previous posts, this blog is now mostly in hibernation mode. Meanwhile, I have been writing and recording podcast episodes, sometimes about topics related to what you used to find on this blog. If you want to continue to follow my thoughts on topics like how to evaluate the contents of black boxes, the proper understanding of tail risks,  and the use of humans as randomization devices, please subscribe to my substack and add my podcast to your favorite listening device. Here’s a sampling of those articles and episodes: • Borel-Cantelli a ..read more

I’m looking to put together a small crew to take on a large arbitrage project. The (rough) model for this would be “Hong Kong Syndicate” which took on the horse betting market. To be involved you have to be willing to make a large commitment in terms of time or money (I plan to contribute both). I have a set of proposed guidelines for identifying potential arbitrage targets, send me an for more info. UPDATE (Oct 5): Lots of interest in this, hope to finalize a core team this week. Let me know right away if you’re interested. Also, this would not necessarily be targeted at horse racing ..read more

If you are a first-timer here at StatisticsBlog.com, or if you’re looking for a list of Greatest Hits, check out the shiny new Start Here page ..read more

“So let’s start with the fact that the study had only 100 people, which isn’t nearly enough to be able to make any determinations like this. That’s very small power. Secondly, it was already split into two groups, and the two groups by the way have absolutely zero scientific basis. There is no theory that says that if I want a girl or if I want a boy I’m going to be better able at determining whether my baby is in fact a girl or a boy.” – Maria Konnikova, speaking on Mike Pesca’s podcast, The Gist. Shown at top, above the quote by Konnikova, is a simulation of the study in question, under t ..read more

Pinned, entropy augmented, digitally normal distribution, of no particular work-related use and thus perfectly suitable for today. Code in R: iters = 1000 sd = 2 precision = 20 results = rep(0,iters) for(i in 1:iters) { x = floor(rnorm(20,5,sd) %% 10) results[i] = paste(c('.',x),sep="",collapse="") } results = as.numeric(results) plot(density(results,bw=.01),col="blue",lwd=3,bty="n ..read more