Lucy Letby is a nurse who has been found...
Probability and Risk
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11M ago
  Lucy Letby is a nurse who has been found guilty of 7 counts of murder and 6 counts of attempted murder of babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital during 2015-16.   Although the mainstream media is portraying her as britain’s most evil baby murderer there are a few legal and other researchers who have seriously questioned the quality of evidence in the case and suggested there may have been systemic causes of the baby deaths at the hospital which were nothing to do with Lucy Letby. Dr Scott McLachlan is one such researcher. He completed his PhD on the topic of Learning Heal ..read more
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Why did Frontiers publish a flawed study massively exaggerating Covid risk to children?
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
<Note: Before publishing this article we sent it to the Editors of Frontiers in Pediatrics asking if they wished to correct any inaccuracies or provide any updates, giving them several days to respond. They did not acknowledge or respond.> In September 2021 Frontiers in Pediatrics published this article by members of the Indonesian Pediatrician Association (IDAI) claiming that the case fatality rate (CFR) for children with ‘suspected’ Covid in Indonesia was 1.4% (i.e. 1 in 71) with a CFR of 0.46% (1 in 217) for those with ‘confirmed’ Covid. No such high Covid fatality rates for childre ..read more
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All you need to know to understand why the ONS data on mortality by vaccine status is systemically flawed
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
You don’t need to look very hard into the latest ONS data on all-cause mortality by vaccination status to confirm what we have been saying for a long time (see for example here and here): the ONS data is so obviously flawed (due to miscategorisation, missing vaccine deaths, and underestimates of the proportion of unvaccinated) to be worthless.  This simple extract from Table 3 on the age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) *** for non-covid deaths over the full period (Jan 2021 – May 2022) is all you need to know to realise everything else in the report is problematic.   age st ..read more
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Response to Susan Oliver video “Antivaxxers fooled by p-hacking and apples to oranges comparison”
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
  The video and the tweet publicising it On 26 June 2022 Susan Oliver published a video on YouTube titled “Antivaxxers fooled by p-hacking and apples to oranges comparison” in response to a preprint[1] by 8 authors, one of whom was well-know BMJ Senior Editor Peter Doshi. She refers to the paper as the “Doshi paper” and we will use the same reference here even though Doshi is the last, rather than first, named author.  The paper demonstrates the increased risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) arising from the Pfizer and Moderna covid vaccine trials. Susan summarised her view of the p ..read more
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Official mortality data for England reveal systematic undercounting of deaths occurring within first two weeks of Covid-19 vaccination
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
Our new research (full paper with first author Clare Craig available on ResearchGate) has discovered over 26,000 covid and non-covid deaths expected to have occurred within two weeks of first dose vaccination have been omitted from the latest UK ONS deaths by vaccination status report:  Estimated deaths for England that were not included in the ONS dataset   The ONS data also fails to include millions of people categorised in the UK NIMS database as ‘within 21 days vaccination’ status: Our analysis compares expected deaths in the ONS dataset to those that have occurred in ..read more
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Why are UKHSA obfuscating data on stillbirths by vaccine status: just another statistical illusion?
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
(See 22 April Update below) In the latest UKHSA Feb 2022 Covid-19 vaccine surveillance report, Figure 8 suggests that there is no increased risk of stillbirth from vaccination: This seems like good news but, as pointed out by Hamish Soutar,  women vaccinated prior to pregnancy are included in "no doses in pregnancy". This is an outrageous piece of obfuscation.  Even though the rest of the report contains quite a lot of detailed raw data, there is no raw data provided to answer the simple question:    is the stillbirth rate higher for those unvaccinated than those vaccinate ..read more
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Update: BMJ rejects - without review - paper highlighting problems with ONS vaccine mortality data
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
Previous blog posts here have discussed the various iterations of the work done by a group of researchers led by Prof Martin Neil looking at the ONS Vaccine Surveillance reports. The original version of this paper** showed that idiosyncrasies in the ONS data on vaccine efficacy and safety could only be explained by systemic reporting errors which, when adjusted for, showed there was no evidence that the vaccines reduce all-cause mortality. Idiosyncracies included (among others) the observation that, in each age group, there was a spike in non-Covid mortality in the unvaccinated at exactly th ..read more
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Computing years of lost life: why actuaries really need to be able to do counterfactual reasoning
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
Hugh Osmond recently put out this interesting twitter thread:   Although the average age of death in the UK is around 82, if a person reaches 82 then on average (i.e. without knowing any details of the particular person) the person can expect to live about another 8 years. We know the average age of a person dying from Covid is also 82, so it seems reasonable to assume that a typical person dying from Covid loses 8 life years. But, as Hugh points out, this reasoning is flawed. Hugh provides what is essentially an informal argument. In what follows we provide a formal explanation. The ques ..read more
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Covid-19 claims and the ludicrous 'fact checkers' of fullfact.org
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
 10 Oct update: This article confirms that fullfact are the ones who really need to be fact checked continually. Seems we were not the only people they are harrassing for simply reporting what was in the ONS data.   Readers of this blog will be aware that anybody who challenges (or even deviates slightly from) the 'official narrative' on Covid-19 is likely to be subject to both censorship and attempts to discredit.  It is somewhat flattering to know that our own work is considered a sufficient challenge to the narrative that we have now come to the attention of the self-appointe ..read more
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A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated
Probability and Risk
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1y ago
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil See 26 October UPDATE to this article The UK Government's own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety.  In a previous post we argued that the most reliable long-term measure of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness/safety is the age adjusted all-cause mortality rate. If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks. We also pointed out that, to avoid the confounding effect of ..read more
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