A dark horse Final Four candidate is a 6+ seed that could reach the Final Four. Historically, we average seeing a 6+ seed in the Final Four about every other year. In the last 10 years, though, we’ve only had one Final Four without a 6+ seed and one Final Four with two. Still, I’d only pick one of these teams if I’m in a bracket group/pool with 1,000+ people. The Models BR – My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM – KenPom Tor – Bart Torvik Observations ESPN’s implied probability of us seeing a 6+ seed in the Final Four is less than half what the others are predicting (0.21 vs 0.46) And ..read more

An early bust is a 1-3 seed that loses in the first weekend of the tournament – failing to advance to the Sweet 16. Historically, we average seeing four Early Busts every year. Four top-3 seeds have at least a 40% chance of being eliminated this weekend. ESPN seems a little gun shy on identifying potential Early Busts… The Models BR – My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM – KenPom Tor – Bart Torvik Observations Streaky Kentucky is a high risk pick for a deep run in the tournament Based on these probabilities, ESPN is the only model not in line with historic averages. Expected # of Earl ..read more

A First Round upset is when a double-digit seed wins their First Round game. I wonder why the ESPN model isn’t on board with the only upset the other models give a greater than 50% chance of happening… The Models BR – My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM – KenPom Tor – Bart Torvik Observations Three models love 11-New Mexico’s chances of beating 6-Clemson in the First Round Most likely 12-5 upset: 2 models like 12-James Madison, while the other two like Grand Canyon more 13-Samford is the consensus most likely 13-4 upset pick Most likely 14-3 upset is all over the place – no consensus ..read more

Houston’s an even more heavy model favorite than last year, but this year they’re coming from the best basketball conference in the land. Maybe the have what it takes to win 6 in a row this time?? The Models BR – My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM – KenPom Tor – Bart Torvik Observations All 4 models have the same Top 3 most likely champ, in the same order KenPom, of course, loves Auburn as the 4th most likely champ No love for 4th 1-seed UNC – especially from ESPN! Creighton’s the only 3-seed in the Top 10 most likely champs Interesting, isn’t it? How quickly the probabilities fall ..read more

1-Houston is a huuuuuuge favorite to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament West Region. Now that they’re coming from a “real” conference, they might finally have the chops to go all the way. The Models BR – My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM – KenPom Tor – Bart Torvik Observations 2-Marquette’s chances are significantly lower than the 2-seeds in the other regions (32%, 24%, and 24%) 3-Kentucky has the lowest likelihood of all the top 3 seeds for reaching the Final Four. Offense wins championships, but you gotta play defense at least a little… KenPom model is the only one giving 1-Houston a l ..read more

The 2024 NCAA Tournament West Region is the most wide open. All four models agree – the 1-seed (North Carolina) isn’t even the favorite to win the region! The Models BR – My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM – KenPom Tor – Bart Torvik Observations The consensus favorite, 2-Arizona, has less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning the region Even though ESPN isn’t with the other three, 11-New Mexico is, by far, the most likely double-digit seed to win their region. 9-Michigan St and 11-New Mexico are the top two dark horse (6+ seed) Final Four candidates 4-Alabama has a wide range of probabili ..read more

The 2024 NCAA Tournament East Region favorite is Connecticut. Surprise, surprise! All four models are in the same ballpark with Connecticut, too. The Models BR – My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM – KenPom Tor – Bart Torvik Observations Iowa St is a strong 2-seed here My model doesn’t like 4-Auburn as much as the other three East Region is most top-heavy. 81% chance the winner is Connecticut, Iowa St, or Auburn The post 2024 East Region Model Results appeared first on BracketResearch.com ..read more

Oh sweet Mary Louise, it is the week of Selection Sunday!  I’m so excited I could cry.  Yesterday I was sitting here in my wife’s basement reading every team’s sports board; side note, I don’t have a life but those guys are wacko.  And why am I doing this? Because it’s March and I friggin’ love March Madness.  I can’t remember who, but one forum poster made an assertion that piqued my imagination. It went something like this.  “I hope that we get an 11 seed play-in game.  We will play a team about as good as us and when we win, it will give us an advantage in the ..read more

I’ve found the best way to identify NCAA Tournament Final Four contenders is by process of elimination. One of the best criteria we can use to eliminate pretenders is a team’s record away from home. Teams that reach the Final Four have at least a 0.500 record (road + neutral site) entering the NCAA Tournament. There are only two outliers in the last 80 Final Four teams, and they simply lucked into their historic runs. There are additional factors and stats that I’ll use to narrow our list of contenders further, but that will come after the conference tournaments are done (stay tuned). How are ..read more

I need to update the Championship DNA page.  I’ve updated – nay, upgraded – the conference criteria.  It’s no surprise that the NCAA champs come from the best conferences, but it’s not just the Power 6. In every tournament, for the past 20, the NCAA Tournament champion has come from a conference whose rating is above a certain threshold. As you can see, the threshold is set by virtue of Connecticut winning from the Big East in 2004.  2023’s Big East was a smidge better, but still barely over the mark.  Only 6 of the last 20 champs came from the strongest conferences for th ..read more