The Quantitative Prognosticator
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my goal is to make my readers think a little bit differently about the game and gain a further appreciation for everything that is happening in ways that may not be talked about or readily apparent. I intend to use statistics alongside the however many thousands of hours I've devoted to playing, watching, and analyzing the sport to make that lens as clear as possible for my readers. I hope..
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1M ago
First, the bracket itself.
Where am I most likely to be wrong:
1-line — I actually had Iowa St surpassing UNC on most metrics in the final day — but I’m skeptical that it wasn’t too late for the committee to make changes given the number of other things on their plate with bid stealers — plus UNC AD Bubba Cunningham on the committee. So UNC it is.
3/4 — Auburn has all the efficiency metrics of a top 4/5 team in the country, with only one of their wins by single digits. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that. They also won the SEC today. On the flip side, their resume is sorely lacking. End of the ..read more
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1M ago
Let’s get the Bracket Projections rolling. A quick reminder that I’m attempting to project the NCAA tournament bracket as it will be on Selection Sunday rather than today. And that with only 2 weeks left, there’s likely not a ton of difference between the two.
I’ve provided the raw rankings for teams so you can see how big/little of a gap exists between teams. The small gap between Providence and Virginia for instance demonstrates there’s really nothing to separate those teams today.
In addition, I’ll note that this formula (adjusted over time, i.e. for NET becoming more prevalent in its curre ..read more
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1y ago
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1y ago
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1y ago
10 days until Selection Sunday! It’s long past time ..read more
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1y ago
A wild final week for teams on the bubble (not a happy one for this Demon Deacon fan) saw as many teams as I can remember improving their resume over the season’s final week. Those who lost early had nothing to do but watch as other teams passed them by the hour. Richmond stealing a bid from Davidson was the final straw for a number of team’s hopes — with 7 teams of a quality that could have gotten in during weaker seasons left on the outside. Which 7 those will be could prove to be hotly contested after the fact. My guess is the average bracketologist (myself included!) will miss more teams t ..read more
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1y ago
Read as S-Curve; Italics = Auto Bid Placeholder; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid ..read more
The Quantitative Prognosticator
1y ago
Read as S-Curve; Bold = Clinched Auto Bid; Italic = Placeholder for Auto Bid ..read more