It's time to call it. My short post from the preseason still pretty much applies.  I just don't have the time to do this anymore, at least at the high level required.  My jobs basically require me to be absent for days at a time, at in a sport like this, you really can't take a day off of following the sport.  The data analysis required to do this is simply beyond my capability. I tried and stopped a few times in January and February to catch up.  The thing is, you just can't catch up here or there.  It needs to be everywhere.  Because projections have to a ..read more

Recaps will be every few days. Tuesday 11/9 Kansas 87, Michigan St 74 Duke 79, Kentucky 71 - my take remains the same on these games year in and year out - they don't have as big an impact on seeding as you'd think at first.  All these teams will pile up plenty of signature win chances this season.  The one exception may be Duke, as the ACC might be down.  So this could be a useful resume win Most of the rest of the results fit the general category of catastrophic loss, or near-disaster miss.  I really won't get into the near-losses, like Houston or Ohio St barely hold ..read more

The 1 line: Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, UCLA The 2 line: Purdue, Texas, Duke, Kentucky The 3 line: Illinois, Baylor, Villanova, Alabama The 4 line: Ohio St, North Carolina, Memphis, Arkansas The 5 line: Houston, Oregon, Florida St, UConn The 6 line: St Bonaventure, Tennessee, Auburn, Michigan St The 7 line: Maryland, Virginia, San Diego St, USC The 8 line: Virginia Tech, Indiana, Texas Tech, Loyola The 9 line: Xavier, Louisville, Richmond, Colorado The 10 line: Iowa, Syracuse, LSU, Florida The 11 line: Colorado St, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Creighton The 12 line: Buffalo, Belmont, Drake, Ariz ..read more

Welcome to another college basketball season.  A preseason bracket should be up today, although we all know the drill by now with those.  The main purpose of it is to try and project how strong conferences are, more than to project any single team.  Pay more attention to the range of seeds from conferences, rather than where individual teams are seeded, or which teams are actually included. We'll have brief daily updates, god willing, again this year, but we're not going to have the depth of analysis most bracketologists will have.  Fact is, I'm approaching two decades of b ..read more

First and last bracket of the year. REGION 1  33 1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Mt St Mary's/Norfolk St 8) Florida vs. 9) North Carolina 4) Florida St vs. 13) Colgate 5) Villanova vs. 12) Winthrop 3) Texas vs. 14) Grand Canyon 6) LSU vs. 11) VCU 2) Iowa vs. 15) Drexel 7) BYU vs. 10) UConn REGION 2  34 1) Michigan vs. 16) Oral Roberts 8) Clemson vs. 9) St Bonaventure 4) West Virginia vs. 13) UC Santa Barbara 5) Missouri vs. 12) Georgetown 3) Kansas vs. 14) Abilene Christian 6) Colorado vs. 11) Utah St/Syracuse 2) Alabama vs. 15) Iona 7) Oregon vs. 10) Michigan St REGION 3  36 1 ..read more

I've made one course correction in favor of the ACC schools - I think I've been low-rating them based on the fact several conference wins were teetering on the Q1/Q2 cutoff - I've given modest bumps to everyone to account for this. Where I'm gonna be wrong: - The 2 line.  Houston over Texas.  Playing the hunch the committee just takes the higher ranked team instead of more loaded resume - The 4-6 lines.  Biggest jumble of the entire grid to me.  I think both Nova and Tennessee have excellent arguments for the 4 line.  Just believe the ACC schools, with my correction ..read more

I'm already annoyed at myself for putting in Syracuse.  Here's a hunch that the committee devalues the road records of everyone, which is a dagger to Drake's resume. I'm really, really not sold on Louisville or UCLA making this tournament, but I'm guessing the squeeze happens to the Mountain West schools instead. The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan The 2 line:  Alabama, Ohio St, Iowa, Houston The 3 line:  Texas, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Kansas The 4 line:  West Virginia, Purdue, Villanova, Virginia The 5 line:  Tennessee, Florida St, Creighton, Colora ..read more

It doesn't feel like the MWC should get 4 teams in, but right now, their resumes are just simply better than the resumes of the last 4 out.  I don't think I can justify any flips yet.  As I've said earlier, expect continuous seed scrubbing throughout the next 24 hours. The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston The 3 line:  Oklahoma St, Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas The 4 line:  Villanova, Purdue, Texas, Virginia The 5 line:  Florida St, Tennessee, Missouri, Colorado The 6 line:  USC, Creighton, Texa ..read more

Good Lord this bubble is bad. I continue to scrub.  SEC teams are better than I thought.  Ole Miss is not dead, just because everyone else is dying.  I want to drop Boise out, but I can't find a team to replace them yet.  Are we seriously considering Syracuse here? UCLA and Louisville would be dead in so many other years. I'll continue to scrub.  I need to take a closer look at the bottom 4 lines, admittedly. The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston The 3 line:  Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Ok ..read more

 A modest amount of scrubbing today. The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Colorado, Missouri The 6 line:  Tennessee, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St The 8 line:  Clemson, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Georgia Tech, VCU T ..read more