In workshops years ago, I presented some basic survival analysis, using a Weibull distribution and censored data. I was recently asked about this topic, so I thought I'd post my old workshop slides here. Even without my narration, I hope the slides may be useful. Click on the slides to enlarge. (These slides are from 2017, slide numbers 780-811 from a slide deck of 950 slides! It was a long workshop...)   ..read more

 Reposting from the Stan discussion site... The original post: Hi Everyone, A question on how to handle reviewers when reporting CI. We are doing RL and in our papers when reporting results I always try to put a figure with the whole posterior. We also tend to report in text the median, 89%CI and probability of direction. We use 89% mainly as a way to avoid 95% which tend to encourage “black and white” thinking (89% is as arbitrary as any other value - but as McElreath said - its a prime number - so it’s easier to remember). A reviewer noted that we should change to 95% (see below). We ..read more

There are new videos for Bayesian and frequentist side-by-side.   Eero Liski, a statistician at the Natural Resources Institute Finland, has made tutorial videos that introduce Bayesian and frequentist data analysis, side-by-side. The first of the video series is available here ..read more

StanCon 2023 is happening June 20-23 (2023).  Submit talks, tutorials, or sessions by April 30: We are interested in a broad range of topics ... including: Applications of Bayesian statistics using Stan in all domains Software development to support or complement the Stan ecosystem Methods for Bayesian modeling, relevant to a broad range of users Theoretical insights on common Bayesian methods and models Visualization techniques Tools for teaching Bayesian modeling See details at the convention website: https://mc-stan.org/events/stancon2023 ..read more

A recent post pointed out three changes to DBDA2E programs; now there is one more. You can get the updated versions by downloading the entire new zip file from the bottom of the software page at https://sites.google.com/site/doingbayesiandataanalysis/software-installation  The most recent change affects the openGraph() function in the script, DBDA2E-utilities.R. This function for opening graphics windows has been updated to work for recent versions of MacOS and Unix. However, I have not personally tested the new function on MacOS and Linux, instead relying on the kind suggestion of reader ..read more

Three R scripts within the set of DBDA2E programs have been updated to work properly with R4.0+. You can get the updated versions by downloading the entire new zip file from the bottom of the software page at https://sites.google.com/site/doingbayesiandataanalysis/software-installation  The three changes: DBDA2E-utilities.R changed a line that used class() into inherits(). Jags-Ycount-Xnom2fac-MpoissonExp.R changed postContrast = ( mcmcMat[, ... to   postContrast = as.vector( mcmcMat[, ... Jags-Yord-Xnom2grp-MnormalHet-Example.R has a frequentist t.test appended at the end, and need ..read more

ChatGPT is fun to play with but is (for now at least) terrible at creating poems, including poems about Bayesian statistics. Here are my attempts to have ChatGPT produce poems like those that begin each chapter of DBDA2E. Or in any other style. My prompt: Write a single poetic quatrain about Bayesian statistics. Use dactylic tetrameter and an AABB rhyme scheme. ChatGPT's reply: Bayesian stats have come to stay They help us make predictions, hooray! From probabilities and data sets They estimate and make forecasts They start with a prior belief And update it with new relief The posterior is th ..read more

life <- function( luck=10 , ... ) {   if ( runif(1) > 1/(luck+1.001) ) {     cat( "push stone uphill... " )      } else {     cat( "\nstone rolls to bottom\n" )   }   life( luck , ... ) } Or maybe you prefer a life with less hard labor, and with more philosophy: life <- function( luck=10 , ... ) {   if (runif(1)>1/(luck+1.001)){cat("?")}else{cat("\n")}   life( luck , ... ) }   life() Either way, R replies with wisdom: Error: evaluation nested too deeply Suitable for framing?   ..read more

Just published (open access) in Nature Human Behaviour: Bayesian Analysis Reporting Guidelines Abstract: Previous surveys of the literature have shown that reports of statistical analyses often lack important information, causing lack of transparency and failure of reproducibility. Editors and authors agree that guidelines for reporting should be encouraged. This Review presents a set of Bayesian analysis reporting guidelines (BARG). The BARG encompass the features of previous guidelines, while including many additional details for contemporary Bayesian analyses, with explanations. An extensi ..read more

The R scripts that accompany DBDA2E have been updated so they work with R 4.1. Please go to the book's software page at https://sites.google.com/site/doingbayesiandataanalysis/software-installation and scroll down to the bottom of that page to find the link to the zip file for the updated scripts.  I changed some scripts that use the R function read.csv() and relied on the old default of casting string vectors as factors. The default was changed in R 4.0, and the global option stringsAsFactors=TRUE no longer works for read.csv() in R 4.1 ..read more