Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options A tight US labor market stays tight Jason Furman (PIIE) and Wilson Powell III (Harvard University) September 2, 2022 11:30 AM Image credit:  REUTERS/Andrew Kelly The US labor market has been very tight for over a year now, driving up both nominal wage growth and price growth, and it remained tight in August. Job growth continued to be strong as employers added 315,000 jobs last month. While the unemployment rate increased to 3.7 percent, this was acco ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options US security scrutiny of foreign investment rises, but so does foreign investment Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) September 1, 2022 10:45 AM Image credit:  Kyodo via Reuters Connect China’s ambitions to obtain advanced technologies, including technologies with military implications, have raised longstanding concerns about its use of investments abroad to gain access to sensitive technologies, data, and infrastructure. In 2018, the US Congress moved to address ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options No sign of inflation relief in July US jobs report Karen Dynan (PIIE) and Wilson Powell III (Harvard Kennedy School) August 5, 2022 11:00 AM Image credit:  Sipa Pictures/Richard B. Levine The July 2022 US employment report surprised to the upside and depicts a labor market that is still very tight. Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000, more than double the consensus forecast. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent, matching the low seen in the robu ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options Inflation and unemployment. Where is the US economy heading over the next six months? Olivier Blanchard (PIIE) August 8, 2022 1:30 PM Image credit:  REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Eight thoughts about what may happen to the US economy over the next six months. Inflation will come down, probably more than many people expect. This reflects the sharp turns in some commodity prices, weakness in China, improvements in supply chains, and the strong dollar. There wil ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options China's zero-COVID policies are crippling its economic outlook Tianlei Huang (PIIE) August 11, 2022 9:00 AM Image credit:  China Daily via Reuters Marketplace Every summer, Chinese tourists descend on the beach resorts in Sanya on Hainan Island, known as the Hawaii of China. Last weekend, the tourists got an unpleasant surprise when Chinese authorities abruptly locked down the entire city over an outbreak of the highly infectious BA.5 Omicron virus su ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options Biden's student loan plan will increase inflation by only a small amount David Wilcox (PIIE) August 30, 2022 2:45 PM Image credit:  REUTERS/Leah Millis President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.’s plan to forgive a substantial portion of the $1.6 trillion in outstanding federal student loans has provoked a debate among economists over its inflationary impact. Three different arguments have been advanced. First, that the plan would add a very small amount to inflati ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options Record US productivity slump in first half of 2022 risks higher inflation and unemployment Jason Furman (PIIE) and Wilson Powell III (Harvard Kennedy School) August 9, 2022 2:30 PM Image credit:  REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski Over the last two quarters, US employment in the nonfarm business sector grew at a very strong 4.3 percent annual rate while output fell at a 2.3 percent annual rate. With average hours per worker decreasing, this means that output p ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options Who controls the world’s minerals needed for green energy? Luc Leruth (Tbilisi University) and Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) August 9, 2022 9:00 AM Image credit:  REUTERS/Melanie Burton The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not simply exposed Europe's dangerous dependence on Russian oil and gas. The war has also underscored a less appreciated but equally worrisome vulnerability in the industrial West to threats that could hamper access to minerals vital to the t ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options The Fed is wrong: Lower inflation is unlikely without raising unemployment Why we disagree with Governor Chris Waller and Andrew Figura Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Alex Domash (Harvard University) and Lawrence H. Summers (Harvard University) August 1, 2022 11:15 AM Image credit:  PIIE/Jeremey Tripp In a lengthy FEDS Note, “What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?,” published July 29, Governor Chris Waller and Fed ass ..read more

Want more research like this? Subscribe to the PIIE Insider Weekly Newsletter RealTime Economic Issues Watch View Sharing Options Private firms bear the brunt of China’s weak growth Tianlei Huang (PIIE) and Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE) August 2, 2022 9:00 AM Image credit:  REUTERS/Thomas Suen China’s meager growth and high unemployment in the first half of 2022 is disproportionately due to weakness in private economic activity, which typically accounts for over two-thirds of China’s output and four-fifths of urban employment. Many small private firms and individual businesses are pr ..read more