Continued strong growth and robust labor markets alongside strong profits raise the likelihood of a longer expansion even if sticky inflation keeps odds of high-for-longer rates elevated. This week’s global PMIs and US payroll report underscore ongoing resilience, likely pushing back timing and/or magnitude of easing cycles. A key unknown is how this would revert back to financial conditions and short-circuit growth. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit w ..read more

Speakers:   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the March jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of ..read more

Hints of a pickup in global capex are emerging in activity data and surveys, with next week’s March global PMI likely to show positive news on manufacturing. On another front we remain confident in our forecast for high-for-long policy rates, which should be reinforced by a US immigration surge that is boosting both supply and demand. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase &a ..read more

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports globally and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.  Early 2024 data provide strong support for our view of a disinflation stall in 1H24. Global core CPI picked up to a 0.3%m/m sa pace in January-February, pushing our 1Q24 forecast to 3.4%ar. A phase of global goods price disinflation looks to have ended while service price inflation remains sticky. We expect core inflation to ease modestly to a roughly 3% pace next quarter. Less clear is the case for the step ..read more

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February global inflation report. This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-GMV4YY4X for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.   ..read more

Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the economic effects of surging US immigration. Immigration has soared over the last few years, profoundly affecting some of the widely-followed economic statistics. It’s been important to the surprising pace of job growth, even alongside a modestly increasing unemployment rate. This, in turn, has added to overall income and output growth. The increase in immigration probably hasn’t had a first order effect on inflation: immigrants add to labor supply, but also add to consumer demand. However, there are many nuances to this assessment.  &nb ..read more

The news flow supports our core views on growth resilience and core inflation stickiness as we turn into the new year. As central banks process this news we expect a DM easing to take hold at midyear but prove shallow. Next week, the FOMC should lean in this direction removing one easing from its dot plot and raising its r* estimate This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This mater ..read more

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the February jobs report.     Speakers: Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648073-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights r ..read more

The global expansion looks to be broadening with both sectoral and geographic growth gaps closing. Resilience fades recession risks but keeps inflation risks on the table. In a Goldilocks report this week, US job growth remained strong last month but came alongside a rise in the urate. The Fed and ECB signaled cuts are coming but remain cautious. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorg ..read more

Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. The outlook had turned more favorable for the EM Edge, aided by macro adjustments and a supportive external environment. Since then, markets have priced out earlier easing by DM central banks. While some of the optimism may have been tempered, the evolving external narrative has not challenged our views. Central Bank reaction functions should continue to be guided by domestic growth/inflation, which remain broadly favorable. Frontiers can also take comfort in the fact that shifts in global markets have no ..read more