Taking Stock
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
One thing I always like to see on SPX the day after I call a possible high area is a big gap down and I wish that happened every time. Alas it does not, but it was nice to see that happen this morning. In terms of the trendlines I was looking at in my post yesterday morning, SPX went a bit higher and hit the shorter term resistance trendline that I thought might need a hit. There was a nice rejection there that followed through hard this morning. SPX daily BBs chart: That delivered a very slight break over the main SPX rising megaphone resistance trendline though a break so marginal that I wo ..read more
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Minority Report
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
The SPX daily upper band ride finished a few days ago. SPX has gone higher in the last week, but not quite reached the upper band again, and there is no particular reason to think that the daily upper band ride might resume. SPX hasn't quite reached the obvious trendline resistance from the October 2023 low and, if that is going to be hit, I have that now in the 5045 SPX area. SPX daily BBs chart: When I  was looking at upside targets on SPX in my last post a week ago, the main one was the rising megaphone resistance from the bear market low in October 2022. That was hit on Friday, and S ..read more
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Likely Retracement Coming Soon
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
I'm expecting to see a retracement of the move up from the October lows start soon, and there are some targets I wanted to see made on equity indices before that happened. The last two of those were made on Friday. The first of those was a retest of the all time high on NDX, and we saw a new high there on Friday, with a very nice looking overall rising wedges from both the 2022 low and the October 2023 low. This looks ready to turn soon. NDX daily BBs chart: The second of those, less important but still significant, was a retest of the all time high on DAX, the main german index, and that to ..read more
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Daily Upper Band Ride - Day Seven
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
I was looking yesterday morning at the daily upper band ride on SPX which had been going for six days. That's not that long for one of these, the last three lasted six, seven and eleven days. Eleven days would be getting long in the tooth for one of these and I think I can only recall one offhand lasting as many as fifteen days, but this this one could potentially run another week. The close yesterday was on the upper band at 4929, and if we see this run again through today, then the upper band will likely rise about fifteen handles into the 4944/5 area. SPX daily BBs chart: On the hourly cha ..read more
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We Are Where We Are
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
Friday 19th January was a disappointing day for bears. SPX made a new all time high, which had been obvious unfinished business above, and when ES was in the 4850 area there was an hour or so when there were lovely little double top setups on SPX, NDX and Dow, hourly negative divergence on all of ES, NQ, RTY and YM, and a beautiful inflection point that could have delivered a significant high and a healthy retracement on SPX back into the 4500s and potentially a lot further. Any inflection point is a choice for the market to make and can always go either way, the inflection point broke up, the ..read more
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Out With The Old Year, In With The New
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
Today is the last trading day of 2023, and is the only significantly bearish leaning day this week. Historically the stats today indicate 38.1% stats for SPX closing green, and only 28.6% green closes on NDX. That doesn't of course mean that the day will be particularly interesting, but intraday at least the last couple of days have been more interesting than I was expecting. On the bigger picture, I was looking for a retest of the 2023 high on SPX to set possible daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals brewing, and we saw that. The high this week so far is at 4793.30, just 25 handles below the al ..read more
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Boxing Day
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
I hope everyone had a great holiday. I've had an enjoyable time at home with my three (adult) children. We're not religious, but it is always a good time to see and enjoy family. One slightly strange thing to the Brit eye about Christmas is that over here and in much of Europe the day after Christmas is a significant holiday too, always a Bank Holiday and called Boxing Day here. The odd thing is that Boxing Day doesn't exist in the US and is an immediate return to trading the day after Christmas Day. That kind of works for me though, as I enjoy my work, and the days between Christmas and New Y ..read more
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Hitting Rising Support on SPX
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
I didn't really have time to fall much in love with the possible bull flag channel on SPX yesterday as it broke hard and SPX went directly to the main support level I was expecting to see tested later after a bounce. That level is rising support from the 2022 low in October which I mentioned yesterday morning as being in the 4240 area. The low yesterday was at 4238.63 and that was a solid test and reversal there. The low also established a possible alternate bull flag falling megaphone support trendline from the July high at 4606.097. So where does that leave SPX? There is a clear choice here ..read more
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A Modest Proposal
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
PUBLISHED AT THEARTOFCHART.NET ON FRIDAY 22nd SEPTEMBER On Thursday night last week I posted a public model trade on my twitter taking a short on ES at 4561.75 looking for the 4350 area. That trade was in thirds, I posted all entries and exits in real time on twitter, and I took the last two thirds at 4399 yesterday for an average gain of 142.5 handles per third. It was a nice trade, and I picked the high area using the SPX 5min chart below on an impressively sweet setup shown below. This move was only a part of the overall scenario here however. SPX 5min chart (from 14th Sept): On the bigger ..read more
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A Festival of Flags
Channels and Patterns
by Unknown
5M ago
SPX has seen a decent retracement from the highs, the reversion to the mean target at the 45dma has been hit, and a lot of decent looking bull flags have been forming on US indices. SPX may now be close to a retracement low, and a daily RSI 5 buy signal fixed a couple of days ago. The overall setup here is strongly suggesting that the next move on SPX may be a retest of the 2023 high at 4607.07. SPX daily chart: On ES there are a couple of options for a bull flag here, the first is a falling wedge, with the support trendline currently in the 4437.50 area, but that doesn't need to be hit, as t ..read more
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