Was last week good or bad for Joe Biden?
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
11M ago
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 12th November, 2023. This time next year, we will be poring over the results of the US Presidential Election and Congress. 2023 was an ‘off year’ for national elections but this week still had some big races and significant results. The news was overwhelmingly good for Democrats. Democrats outperforming expectations In the key swing state of Virginia, they defied predictions of a dead-heat to take control of both Houses. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s vague presidential hopes went up in flames. Andy Beshear won a second term as Govern ..read more
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Could 2023 see a new Tory leadership crisis and Boris Johnson return?
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
1y ago
This article was first published on 24th December 2022 at betting.betfair.com This time last year, the big political betting story was whether Boris Johnson could survive ‘Partygate’. Having long predicted he would leave office before 2024, that proved a very successful market but I couldn’t have imagined the Tories would change leaders twice during 2022. Polls point to a Tory wipeout Given the party’s dire standing in the polls and looming catastrophe at the next election, it is certainly fair to ask whether we will see another during 2023. As this recent MRP illustrates, virtually no Tory MP ..read more
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Extensive Interview on Political Betting with Smart Betting Club
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
1y ago
Here’s an extensive recent interview I did with Pete from Smart Betting Club. It was particularly enjoyable as I got to free range on my favourite topics! We discussed how I got into betting and how my career has developed as a semi, then professional gambler, to my current combination of roles as a freelance consultant and journalist, working for betonline.ag and of course, Betfair. Furthermore, we discussed a whole range of issues around political betting. How to find angles. Tips on how to analyse markets and avoid making mistakes. I discussed numerous previous elections and betting strateg ..read more
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Politics Live Update: Trump 2024 odds in freefall as troubles pile up
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
1y ago
In my latest update for Betfair’s Politics Live blog, I focus on the betting for the 2024 US Presidential Election, and in particular, the rapidly fading chances of Donald Trump being re-elected. Long-term readers will already know I’ve always been very cold – freezing, even – on his chances. The betting has been moving that way for weeks and some polls show him trailing badly behind Ron DeSantis for the Republican nomination. Now, I believe, legal catastrophe awaits. The Jan 6th Commission has referred Trump to the Department of Justice on four counts. Keep up to date with political betting d ..read more
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Should We Bet on the Mandelson Dim Supper Forecasts?
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
1y ago
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 13th December 2022 Lord Peter Mandelson is one of the most Marmite figures in modern British politics. Either revered as a strategic genius and architect of the most successful Labour Party ever. Or despised as a machiavellion master of the dark arts. No matter. We should all be able to agree his analysis is worth a hearing. Mandelson and some close friends have a Christmas dinner tradition, in which they debate and make political predictions for the year(s) ahead. It is known as the Peter Mandelson Dim Sum Supper and you can read about in ..read more
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Politics Live Update: Biden charging forward in 2024 betting
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
1y ago
My latest update to Betfair’s Politics Live focuses on the Democrat Nomination for the 2024 US Election. I’ve been tipping Joe Biden for this and in the presidential market for months. Following a respectable performance at the midterms for Democrats, his odds are shortening rapidly. Furthermore, this morning I updated that advice with the following thread on Twitter. 1: The Biden charge continues. He's up to 25% for Election Winner, and was up to 67% for nomination last night but fallen back to 63% this morning. Time to update my 2024 position. https://t.co/8GPoPl2ycY — Political Gambler ..read more
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Episodes 7 and 8 of Get Out The Bet: 2024 Market Moves
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
1y ago
We are now on a break until the New Year, after which time we will be looking in greater depth at the 2024 US Presidential Election. Here, however, are the two final episodes of 2022. In the first we discuss Donald Trump’s announcement that he will run for president again and whether Joe Biden is a lock to be the Democrat Nominee. Plus I explain an alternative trading plan that could offer some value on there being a female president. Episode 8 focused on the Georgia run-off; the subsequent market moves regarding Trump and Biden; plus what political betting action to look forward to in 2023 ..read more
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The Polling Station: Trump Runs Again
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
2y ago
Our latest episode of The Polling Station is out. William Kedjanyi, Johnny Ward and I met the day following Donald Trump’s announcement that he will run again for President in 2024. Naturally, Trump’s future, the ramifications and betting for 2024 are the central focus of the show, but we also take a look at UK politics. Our general election is probably two years away so we discuss whether the Conservatives can turn around a huge deficit under Rishi Sunak, or whether backing Labour to win most seats equates to ‘free money’. Unless something unexpected and dramatic, this will be our last episod ..read more
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Buckle up for Trump’s dramatic final series
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
2y ago
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 10th November, 2022 It is time to ask the question yet again, at least six years after first asking it. Is Donald Trump finished? I wrote a piece with that exact title in February, covering his ever-growing mountain of legal threats and increasing lack of cover. It stands up very well today. All the cases have escalated. The legal process moves on. Yet until a few days ago, money was pouring in at ever shorter odds for him to win the 2024 Election. Trump usurped by DeSantis That trend has reversed markedly in the wake of the midterm electio ..read more
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US Midterm Elections: Final predictions and markets to follow in-play
The Political Gambler Blog
by paulkrishnamurty
2y ago
The full article is available, free of charge, at betting.betfair.com This is a huge day in US politics, with voting underway for the Senate and House of Representatives. At stake, control of Congress at a pivotal moment in US and world history. It has profound implications for Joe Biden’s presidency and re-election chances in 2024. Naturally, it is also a huge night for betting on politics. Betfair’s markets will go live once polls close, and betting will be available for both state and nationwide markets, as the results for each county are being declared. At 7am Eastern Time, these were the ..read more
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