Is this just a correction after a strong bullish advance from November, or is the bull market ending? If you read some of the headlines, you would suspect the latter. As noted by MarketWatch last week: “For the first time since early November 2023, less than 30% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average — a clear indicator of the current poor market’s breadth. This significant drop from the 85% observed in late March and 92% at the beginning of January highlights a dramatic reversal in market dynamics. The 50-day moving average is often seen as a barometer for the sh ..read more

The latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey was an economic warning that departed widely from more robust governmental reports. In a recent analysis of small businesses, we discussed the importance those business owners play in the economy. “It is crucial to understand that small and mid-sized businesses comprise a substantial percentage of the U.S. economy. Roughly 60% of all companies in the U.S. have less than ten employees. Small businesses drive the economy, employment, and wages. Therefore, the NFIB’s statements are highly relevant to the economy’s current ..read more

We recently wrote Japan’s Lost Decades to appreciate better why Japan’s GDP is smaller than it was in 1995 and why it took 35 years for its stock market to set its recent record high. Many pundits claim the U.S. is following Japan’s path. The path includes a stagnant economy, massive government debt, and a central bank that must dominate financial markets to keep the economy and financial markets afloat. There is merit to that opinion. The U.S. government has excessive debt and is increasingly negligent in managing its budget. Also, the nation’s economic growth rate has been trending lower for ..read more

Economic “reflation” is becoming the next bullish narrative as equity valuation increases continue to outpace earnings gains, at least according to Gold Sachs and Tony Pasquariello. “If GS is correct on the big calls, the macro backdrop is set to remain friendly: the US economy should continue to grow nicely above trend — picking up speed as the year moves along — with three adjustment rates cuts along the way.  to not obscure the moral of that story: the Fed is set to ease policy … into an upswing.  while Fedspeak this week had a somewhat hawkish bent, the house view for 2024 remai ..read more

Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economists’ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border. Concurrently, many young college graduates continue to complain about the inability to receive a job offer. As noted recently by CNBC: The job market looks solid on paper. According to government data, U.S. employers added 2.7 million people to their payrolls in 2023. Unemployment hit a 54-year low of 3.4% in January 2023 and ticked up just slightly to 3.7 ..read more

Having risen by about 40% since last October, Gold is on a moonshot. Many investment professionals consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, measuring the level of anxiety in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics. Therefore, we must investigate what is and isn’t driving the price of gold higher. The Divorce Between Gold and Real Yields To help us figure out what may be driving the momentum in Gold, it is worth first considering that a trusty relationship that largely explained the movement in gold prices broke down about two years ago. The graph below, courtesy of Matt Weller ..read more

In the most recent report from FINRA, margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. We previously discussed that valuations, in the short term, reflect investor optimism. In other words, as prices increase, investors rationalize why paying more for current earnings is rational. “Valuation metrics are just that – a measure of current valuation. More importantly, when valuation metrics are excessive, it is a better measure of&n ..read more

Your mother likely imparted valuable investing lessons you may not have known. With Mother’s Day approaching and bullish market exuberance present, such is an excellent time to revisit the investing lessons she taught me. Personally, when I was growing up, my Mother had a saying, or an answer, for almost everything… as most mothers do. Every answer to the question “Why?” was immediately met with the most intellectual of answers: “…because I said so”. Seriously, my Mother was a resource of knowledge that has served me well over the years, and it wasn’t until late in life that I real ..read more

Back in 1989, Japan was taking over the world. The country’s economy had grown 6.7% in 1988. Sony had just bought Columbia Pictures, one of the largest Hollywood studios, for $3.45 billion. Japanese property company Mitsubishi Estate took control of Rockefeller Center in New York City that October. When land prices peaked in Tokyo, Japan’s Imperial Palace grounds were more valuable than all the land in Florida. – WSJ At its height, in 1989, real estate in Tokyo sold for as much as $139,000 a square foot—more than 350 times as much as choice property in Manhattan. – Vanity Fair Some say the ..read more

One of the most interesting conundrums is the surging wealth gap in America. Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement. Such a reality starkly differs from the belief that rising asset prices benefit the masses. For example, in a recent St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank analysis, total household wealth was $139.1 trillion, covering 131 million families. Of that total wealth, 74% was owned by just 13.2 million families, or roughly 10% of the population. Notably, this measure of wealth includes the ..read more