Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
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His audiences know him as THE "Inflation Guy." In the inflation markets, he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast, the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money.
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
1w ago
On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
2w ago
Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This is an important episode!
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Jarrow R, Yildirim Y (2003) Pricing treasury inflation pro ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
3w ago
Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting to have some defectors.
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
1M ago
Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy?
NOTES
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
1M ago
Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money?
Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these funds are securities that should be included in every investor's toolkit.
Listen to this episode before you take the plunge. In it, the Inflation Guy makes a very clear prediction about what is to come.
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Podcast ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
2M ago
When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal.
Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic readings about the future to the gathered listeners.
Now for some cake!
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Podcast callback: Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way
Google Sheet with Speculat ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
2M ago
The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
2M ago
The Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses.
This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation ri ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
3M ago
"Money Illusion" sounds like the sort of thing your economics teacher droned on and on about, causing you to yearn for a nice nap during class. But is it a real thing? And if it is...why does it matter?
In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains money illusion, presenting some of the evidence that it is (at least some of the time) a real phenomenon. He uses current observations where you can see money illusion at work, and then explains why it is very important that policymakers understand how important money illusion is, and over what time scales.
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Article: Fox News New Hampshire Voter ..read more
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
3M ago
In this (longer than normal) episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the outlook for inflation - which, admittedly, he did last week with the CPI Summary episode but in this case he delves into more of the drivers of his 2024 and 2025 expectations - and for several asset markets. He frames the question as a balance of the risks and makes concrete suggestions for how he would tilt portfolios today.
Also, in response to listener requests, he lists several podcasts that he (very occasionally) listens to. "Recommend" is a strong word, but he likes these.
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Blog Post: 2024 Balance of Risks
Blog ..read more