This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the watchword.    Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. N.B This was recorded on 11 April 2024. For any ..read more

This week host Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins review their expectations for central bank rate cuts later this year. While economic data have surprised in the US, they don't think it's enough to dramatically change the Fed's position. But with more data on the way, it's a case of wait and see. In Europe, the broad inflation news is in line with the European Central Bank's expectations, and an April cut still seems unlikely.   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was recorded on ..read more

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk about the latest developments in the US, the UK and Europe. With rates on hold, however, there is still lots for market participants to mull over from recent central bank updates, as the risks of inflation persist. June is still on the table for the Fed's first rate cut, while at the Bank of England no member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike. From Europe, we hear about what clients have to say.    Bondcast is away for Good Friday but will return on 5 April.  Remember to hit ..read more

This week Imogen Bachra and Jan Nevruzi dissect US inflation figures and look ahead to a Fed meeting that promises an update on Quantitative Tightening policy, among other things. Will it be enough to upset the relative calm of late and move markets? They also analyse what may happen next week in the UK and look at whether the European Central Bank is still expected to cut rates in June.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was recorded on 14 March 2024.  For a ..read more

This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi share key takeaways from recent events in the UK, Europe and the US. At the European Central Bank, did new inflation figures give a better indication of when it might cut rates? In the UK, a predictable Spring Budget yielded little drama for markets, while in the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was recorded on 7 March 2024.  For any terms use ..read more

This week Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to look ahead to the UK Spring Budget on 6 March. While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may decide to reduce some taxes, the country's modest fiscal headroom means there is little likelihood of a dramatic financial policy change. Elsewhere, they discuss personal consumption expenditure data in the US, and inflation figures from Europe.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was recorded on 29 Febr ..read more

This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam discuss their views on policy developments in UK and European bond markets. In the former, fiscal headroom may not have a dramatic affect on gilt issuances, even as the market is becoming more retail friendly. In Europe, the European Central Bank is growing wary of cutting rates too early, while PMI data suggests a deviation between German and France economic expectations. And how are retail issuances performing in Italy?    Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as ..read more

In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam debrief after a big data week in the UK and US and discuss the impact on our rates outlook. They also take a closer look at some new thinking published this week around the ECB’s operational framework.        Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was recorded on 15 February 2024.  For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insigh ..read more

This week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss how their views on the market differ from the businesses they have been speaking with recently. In the UK, the data appears to support our modestly hawkish view, while in the US non-farm payroll data suggests the Fed will hold rates for now. In Europe, could French sovereign spreads be too tight, and Spanish too wide? For Italy, it's all about risk.      Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was recorded on ..read more

Major central banks have been somewhat taciturn about the prospect of rate cutting, so did that change during the past week? Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam analyse recent events, data and market views in a week when the Fed and the Bank of England held rates - and explained their decisions to do so. In Europe, inflation appears to be falling faster than the European Central Bank's projections suggested, while German and Italian syndications caught many by surprise. Might Spain and Belgium be next?    Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen t ..read more