The RBA has scrapped any hints of potential further hikes, sparking speculation on whether it will continue to be open on hiking, despite pivoting to a more neutral guidance. In episode 47 of The Rate Debate, co-head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren unpack the RBA's "shift in language" from a tightening bias to a neutral rate outlook, share their thoughts on the rebound of consumer confidence and evaluate the likelihood of a policy shift by global central banks this year ..read more

The RBA may have started its new regime of two-day meetings and press conferences to improve transparency, yet the outcome remained the same as it was when it last met: no change to the cash rate. In the first episode of The Rate Debate for 2024, co-head of Fixed Income Darren Langer is joined by Investment Manager Jessica Ren to analyse the RBA’s new approach, unpick the labour market outlook, and discuss whether geopolitical tensions are likely to be the largest challenge facing central bankers in the year ahead. Find out more in episode 46 of The Rate Debate ..read more

The RBA has granted a festive reprieve for mortgage holders, keeping interest rates on hold in line with expectations after inflation continued to slow. The year 2023 was characterised by a period dominated by inflation risk, geopolitics and monetary tightening. Will these economic conditions persist in the new year?  In the final episode of The Rate Debate for 2024, Darren Langer and Jessica Ren discuss their outlook on the global economy, share their views on whether we can expect a hard or soft landing, and explain why now is a good time to own fixed income ..read more

The RBA delivers a Melbourne Cup rate hike to curb persistent inflation. Rising energy and service costs are contributing factors, but the post-pandemic spending spree, favouring experiences over possessions, raises questions about “funflation” stoking inflationary pressures. Will higher rates further fan the flames? Darren is joined by his new sparring partner, Jessica Ren, to explore these dynamics and more in episode 44 of The Rate Debate ..read more

September was a tough month for the fixed-rate bond market, but on the flip side, credit yields surged higher. In this month’s episode of The Rate Debate, Darren is joined by senior credit portfolio manager Phil Strano to give their insights and discuss the impact of a default cycle as quantitative easing ends, and monetary policy starts to normalise.  ..read more

Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe finished his tenure as he began by keeping rates on hold as inflation cools.  With inflation past its peak, can we expect rate cuts on the horizon, and could a softening of China's economy bring them even closer or will services inflation drive the incoming governor Michele Bullock to deliver a rate rise later this year? Darren is joined by special guest Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income, to explore this and the outlook for credit markets in episode 42 of The Rate Debate ..read more

Amidst ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBA has seen fit to keep rates on hold for a consecutive month and wait to see how the lagging effects of 12 rate hikes play out. While inflation is decelerating, uncertainty abounds over consumer spending, falling productivity and wage growth. Will the central bank's aim to deliver a soft landing make it harder to get inflation back to target, meaning that this pause is short-lived? Darren is joined by special guest Phil Strano, Senior Portfolio Manager in charge of credit research, to explore this and more in episode 41 of The Rate Debate ..read more

The RBA has paused on hiking rates (for now) creating some big winners and losers.  This month Darren is joined by special guest Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income, to identify the potential warning signs for lenders, discuss whether Australia's banks will remain "unquestionably strong", and examine which companies in the consumer sector will stand to win or lose. Darren and Roy discuss this and more in episode 40 of The Rate Debate ..read more

Australia has been delivered another rate hike in an attempt to "quash" inflation. This month Darren debates with special guest Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, the risks posed by rising wages and weak productivity growth, and why the RBA continue to change its goalposts to drive down inflation ..read more

Hitting the economy with surprise after surprise, the RBA takes another fresh assault to tackle inflation head-on by taking the cash rate to 3.85%. Continued mixed signals from Australia’s central bank are causing havoc within the domestic economy. With the RBA not ruling out further rate hikes, Darren and Chris look into the impact on markets and discuss their thoughts on the future of the RBA in episode 38 of The Rate Debate ..read more