Tax Day woes and audit fears; earnings season commences; What are companies saying? No corporate buybacks, removing major buyers of assets; pay attention to companies' guidance. Markets last week failed at 20-DMA, and tested 50-DMA as momentum slowed. Is not the time to sell? Use any bounce to rebalance risk, but avoid any knee-jerk reactions. Could this be a "buy-the-dip moment?" Lance's favorite bowl is like the market: There's a hairline crack. Inflation has been stickier, and higher-for-longer interest rates have been too high for too long. Preview: Tuesday's article on the Reflation Trade ..read more

CFP testing results & commentary on professional credentialling; the importance of the Health/Wealth connection; the importance of continuing education (CE); a brief history of JP Morgan and "too big to fail." Inflation is permatory, not transitory. Profit margins are not great because costs are up. Jerome Powell is trying to put out a fire with a water pistol; how many ate cuts now? There is still too much money in the system to really tame inflation. Real Wages have peaked: Is this Jerome Powell's "Volker Moment?" What clients "think" about portfolios is the toughest thing for advisors t ..read more

It's CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee's science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small businesses:Sentiment falls to a new low based on poor sales. There remains a dichotomy between headline economic news and what's happening behind the scenes. Markets break below the 20-DMA, but regain support. Why what really matters is the data the Fed looks at. Portfolio Spring Cleaning; Five or six ways to save Social Security (but first, a history of SS); the mathematical realities. Why Pension ..read more

Some are disappointed the eclipse did not herald the Rapture; markets are holding firm at 20-DMA. NFIB preview vs CEO Confidence; why small business' mood matters. Interest Rates in different states; no change in bullish market trend (why not to knee-jerk react to market); but trend weakness is become more apparent. Consumer confidence vs Valuation (w/charts); why margin debt is like dynamite. Correction is coming, and will feel worse due to greed. The cost of margin debt as rates rise. Earnings Season preview: Are Regional Banks in trouble? Q1 guidance has been lower: What happens if interest ..read more

Eclipse-mania is out of control. Fed speakers confirm they'll cut rates, but in no rush to do so. Jobs numbers tantalize markets; the impact of immigration on employment. Boomers & Gen-Z plans to splurge on groceries in 2024. Markets takeout the 20-DMA; will the break be confirmed this week? Putting Inflation into proper perspective; the three measures of inflation. The economic basics of Supply & Demand (and their impact on inflation). Your personal inflation is not the same as mine. What markets pay attention to (CPI). How to fix the power grid: Productive vs un-productive debt. Forg ..read more

Market and economic data preview: How to respond in current environment. The U.S. is still the best house in a bad neighborhood. Fed folks now saying it's possible to have no rate cuts this year. Are you really ready for Tax Day? Danny & Jonathan run through some tips and strategies. The advantages and distinctions of IRA's vs Roth's: Tax liability now or later? What are the odds of taxes going up in the future? How to handle being retired and going back to work. How does this affect RMD's? How to think ahead strategically about taxes in retirement. Rather Roth for younger workers. The adv ..read more

In this week's Fedapolooza, Fed spokespersons seem to be growing less hawkish about rates. Inflation is simply a function of supply & demand. There is a high correlation between GDP/CPI and interest rates. When inflation comes down, so will rates. Watching tomorrow's employment report: ADP is a poor predictor of BLS data. The Bernie Madoff trendline remains intact in markets; bullish sentiment is very high; bear sightings on Wall Street are rare. Technical trends of inflation are falling as the economy slows; comparisons of Japanese and U.S. economies; discussion on the economic impact on ..read more

The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators). The data might not be as strong as we think. The difference between Fed promises and predictions can be vast. Markets remain in a "perfect" trend channel; what happens when the 20-DMA is broken? Commentary on the coming solar eclipse, and markets' historic behavior following. What matters is what happens for the 12-months after such an event. Correction is coming. Answering emails: Stocks vs Bond ..read more

PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70. Markets continue a low-volatility advance, seemingly floating higher. The current environment typically leads to market correction. The next round of earnings commences next week; it will be unsurprising that to see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street estimates. (The high beat rate is always the case due to the sharp downward revisions in analysts’ estimates as the reporting period begins.) A ..read more

Consumer confidence for stock prices remains high, despite mixed econonic data. Asset prices are rising faster than earnings, as optimism is extremely elevated. Equal Weight Index is underperforming the S&P; Bond prices are improving. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. Markets' advance for past 5-months begs the question, what's next? T ..read more