Taiwan has come to represent a strategic flashpoint in US-China relations. As Beijing ramps up its political and military pressure on Taipei, any escalation could trigger a major conflict between the two powers. Unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China may have to reckon with direct US intervention if it chose to invade Taiwan. Alongside this, the US-China strategic competition is rising, with the United States’ strategic approach involving aggressive export controls, maintaining tariffs, and creation of alliances in the Indo-Pacific. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alpe ..read more

Cover image: picture alliance / Xinhua News Agency | Henadz ZhikovA new governing body On 24 April, Belarus held the inaugural congress of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA), a newly formed constitutional body resulting from a pseudo-referendum in 2022. The assembly, based on the principle of government corporatism and made up of carefully chosen loyalists, has the power to overturn decisions made by other state bodies, including the government and parliament. Its creation was heralded by the Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, as a stabilising force for the political system and ..read more

Cover image: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESSThibault Camus The 2023 NATO Vilnius summit failed to secure an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance, pushing Kyiv to consider alternative options such as signing bilateral security agreements with its supporters. After the summit, the G7 declared that bilateral agreements should formalise “enduring support to Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty and territorial integrity, rebuilds its economy, protects its citizens, and pursues integration into the Euro-Atlantic community”. Over 30 states joined the G7 declaration and since January Ukrai ..read more

Cover image: picture alliance / empics | Toby Melville When the British government first advanced its bill to send migrants off-shore to Rwanda back in April 2022, then home secretary Priti Patel promised it would “change the way we collectively tackle illegal migration.” Two years later and with the bill finally passed into law, the policy is a floundering disaster: it is unlikely to deter illicit migration, damages the UK’s global standing by violating international law, and endangers refugee’s lives all at huge financial cost. Nevertheless, Patel was disturbingly prescient. Germany’s own co ..read more

How can we understand current-day Russia against the background of history? Is the monopolisation of power and lack of checks and balances on a level unique to Russia? Was Russia’s foreign policy trajectory predestined and if not, what were the crucial turning points that brought it to where it is today? And is Russian foreign policy changing irreversibly?    ECFR’s new podcast on Russia, “Under the Overcoat”, explores the deeper trends beneath the surface of daily politics. To look at the history of Russia’s foreign policy and what its future might be, our host Kadri Liik is jo ..read more

Cover image: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | Markus Schreiber Less than two months ahead of the European Parliament election, Germany’s centrist parties are having an identity crisis. Mobilisation is particularly strong among likely Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Green voters – 71 per cent and 85 per cent of their supporters respectively intend to vote in the upcoming election. In contrast, the mobilisation efforts of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) coalition and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) appear comparatively weak, at 64 per cent and 5 ..read more

Workers load lithium concentrate at Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe mine in Goromonzi, Zimbabwe, January 9, 2024. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo | picture alliance / REUTERS | PHILIMON BULAWAYOSummary Europeans are searching for secure sources of critical raw materials as global supply chains become increasingly contested. Some African governments wish to obtain greater benefit from this growing demand and are restricting the export of raw materials to force local value-addition, such as in-country processing and manufacturing. The EU should take a clearer stance on which aspects of the critical raw mat ..read more

In September 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future is set to take place – a crucial moment to mend “eroded trust” between peoples, countries, and generations. Europe’s role on the world stage is constantly adapting to the fluidity of the global geopolitical space. Traditional views of multilateralism are being rethought, and Europe is exploring its role in fostering meaningful international cooperation on many global issues.   In this final episode of Europe Listens, ECFR’s Rafael Loss and Jana Puglierin welcome Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group an ..read more

Cover image: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | Harry Nakos After a power-sharing agreement collapsed last month, Bulgaria has once again been thrown into political uncertainty. The country has appointed a new caretaker government, to be led by prime minister Dimitar Glavchev and snap elections were called for 9 June – the same day as the European Parliament election – making it the sixth time Bulgarians will head to the polls in just three years. The last five times resulted in a hung parliament, allowing the president, Rumen Radev, to wield a significant amount of power by appointing care ..read more

Cover image: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | Evelyn HocksteinSummary The war in Gaza and its fallout have stalled plans for the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, or IMEC. But this grand US-led connectivity project to link the EU and India via the Gulf can still happen – and it can serve the geopolitical goals of all its participants. With IMEC, the US and the EU aim to draw India closer and counter Chinese influence. The corridor would provide a boost to India’s strategy to escape encirclement by Beijing and become a leader among developing countries. The UAE and Saudi Arabia ..read more