Gold has reached the first of a handful of measured upside targets at $2350.   It has another measured upside target of $2350 and the cup and handle targets of roughly $3000 and $4000.   Many observers will naturally worry about the next correction after unexpected and sudden strength. It is almost a knee-jerk reaction after many fits and starts in recent years.   A review of history helps us to understand that post-breakout corrections in Gold are usually minor.   Let’s examine how Gold performed and corrected after similar major breakouts to new all-time highs. We ..read more

  Gold has broken out from a super bullish cup and handle pattern. This breakout is historically significant as it has tremendously bullish implications over the next decade.    However, Gold breaking above $2100 is not quite a risk-off signal for the entire precious metals sector. At least not yet.   The breakout has started to pull Silver and the miners higher, but Gold remains the leader.    The next signal to watch is Silver breaking critical resistance at $26.   We plot the monthly charts of Silver and Silver against the foreign currency basket below ..read more

  I have focused on the coming secular shift in Gold and precious metals because it has massive implications over the coming years and into the 2030s.   However, I will discuss the cyclical potential of the current move in Gold today. With a strong close above $2100, Gold is in a new cyclical bull market.   The chart below notes the historical cyclical bull moves in Gold.   Other than the first cyclical bull (which did not begin in earnest until late 1971) and the most recent, every cyclical bull lasted roughly three years, give or take a few months.    The cycli ..read more

  The gold stocks have underperformed Gold for almost 20 years so it is extremely difficult to imagine they could outperform Gold.   There are three reasons for the underperformance, but with Gold’s major breakout, two will evaporate.   One reason for the underperformance is the introduction of Gold ETFs (like GLD) in the mid-2000s. Before Gold ETFs, the majority of investors could only gain exposure to Gold through individual gold stocks. This reason remains in effect.   A second reason is that Gold and Silver have been in a secular bear market since 2011. The Gold price ..read more

  I have written about Gold’s super bullish Cup & Handle Pattern multiple times over the last few years.   If you need to get up to speed, my most recent article on the cup and handle pattern is here.   Yesterday, Gold finally broke out from the handle and surged above $2100 to $2126. Gold had already made all-time high closes in quarterly, monthly, and weekly terms, but clearing $2100 made it official.   Depending on how you measure, the upside target is $2,920 or $3,090. The log target, which I have discussed in past articles, is roughly $4,000.   Those targets ..read more

  Gold continues to hold above $2000/oz, but the gold stocks, which have failed to get any traction, grind lower as the stock market surges.   Apathy has set in as valuations and investor sentiment in gold stocks probe multi-year lows. In other words, the weakness of the last several quarters is more a result of investor behavior and preference rather than fundamentals.   The other component of a major bottom is a very or extremely oversold market.    The chart below plots GDX (black), new 52-week lows (brown), and the percentage of GDX stocks trading above the 200-da ..read more

  We wrote that gold stocks are cheap and hated a few weeks ago.   You never could use those adjectives in a bull market.   Gold remains extremely close to a significant and historic breakout, but the sector as a whole is breaking down when measured against the stock market.   Below, we plot Gold, the S&P 500, and Gold, Silver, and the gold stocks against the S&P 500.   Since Gold’s peak in August 2020, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high following the 35% Covid crash and most recently surpassed its end of 2021 peak and 27% decline.    Meanwhile ..read more

This week, I published a video update evaluating whether gold stocks are cheap or undervalued. There is a difference. But I digress.   After publishing the video and reviewing the comments, my biggest takeaway was that gold stocks are hated.    After a nearly three-and-a-half-year-long bear market, one can imagine how investors and speculators feel about the sector. Here is a sample of the comments in response to my video.  It is safe to say that gold stocks are hated, and who can blame anyone for their disgust?   Precious metals have been in a bear market for 13 year ..read more

  I have been writing about Gold’s super bullish cup and handle pattern since 2021.   The pattern is super bullish because the handle consolidation of the past few years has transpired above the 38% retracement (around $1675/oz), and the peaks are above the peak from 2011 at the start of the pattern.    The cup is nine years long, while the handle is a month away from a length of three and a half years. The handle would need to continue for another year or so before we become concerned about the viability of the overall pattern.    Gold closed December, making w ..read more

  I have been writing about this for years, but it bears repeating because many gold bugs deny or gloss over its reality.   Although Gold is hovering around all-time highs, the precious metals sector will remain in a secular bear market until the stock market and the economy crack.   Let’s review the historical picture.   The biggest moves in precious metals were during secular bear markets in stocks. See the yellow.   There is an overlap with the 1960s as gold stocks, a proxy for Gold, exploded higher after 1964. They strongly outperformed the stock market even thoug ..read more