In the first two months of 2024, Egypt’s LNG exports fell by a significant 62% to 0.54 mt, marking a noteworthy decrease (-0.67 mt) compared to the previous year. Egypt recorded the biggest year-on-year drop in terms of absolute changes in global LNG exports. This trend is not surprising: Egypt’s ability to export LNG has been curtailed by domestic gas production issues over the past years. Gas production has been decreasing since mid-2021, primarily due to unexpected water breakthrough issues at the giant  Zohr gas field, which started operations in 2017 and formed the cornerstone of the ..read more

Mild weather, ample natural gas imports and healthy gas stockpiles kept European gas prices in check in March.  The EU did exit the winter with gas storage at record levels: 3% higher than the previous month and 21% higher than the average of the past three years.  Prices were low enough in Europe to the extent that LNG cargoes were diverted to Asia where spot prices fetched a dollar higher than the spot price in Europe. Gas shipments from the Russian energy giant Gazprom to Europe (EU and Ukraine) increased by 11.9% month-on-month in March and jumped 25.8% year-on-year. Gazprom ship ..read more

The European Union has committed to phasing out all imports of fossil fuels from Russia by 2027. While sanctions have not been imposed on natural gas as they have been on oil and coal, the EU’s dependence on Russia has already been significantly reduced. In 2023, deliveries of Russian pipeline gas to the EU had decreased by 80% since 2021, although partially offset by a temporary increase in LNG imports from Yamal. Consequently, the share of European imports from Russian gas dropped from over 40% in the years preceding the invasion to 14% in 2023. Pipeline exports to the European Union collaps ..read more

Global LNG supply is set to expand by almost 50% (or 250 bcm/y) by 2030, driven by Qatar and the US. but will it find a home? With European gas demand entering into structural decline and Japan firing back its nuclear power plants, all eyes turn on China, India and other fast growing Asian markets. To put things into perspective: all the new LNG supply by 2030 accounts for less than 10% of Asia’s current coal consumption, a drop in the ocean, with plenty place for coal-to-gas switching. Whether all this new LNG will find a home will depend on a number of factors: (1) The pace of renewables exp ..read more

Unseasonably mild weather continued to drive down gas prices in Feb24, with North American hubs reaching multi-decade lows and European gas prices falling to pre-crisis levels. In the US, Henry Hub prices averaged at $1.7/mmbtu -their lowest February level since 1995, or almost 30 years. mild weather conditions drove down rescom demand, which dropped by around 15% yoy, while continued strong production and high inventory levels (25% above 5y average) put further downward pressure on prices. In Canada, AECO fell to $1.35/mmbtu -the lowest gas price on the globe for the moment (and its lowest Fe ..read more

Gas saving measures by businesses and citizens across the EU have made an important contribution to tackling the energy crisis, spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Collectively, the EU reduced gas demand by 18% between August 2022 and December 2023, saving around 101 billion cubic metres of gas. These efforts go above and beyond the 15% savings target which was agreed under emergency legislation adopted in Summer 2022, and were essential to preserve stable supplies, stabilise energy markets in the EU, and show solidarity with Ukraine. With the emergency legislation due to ex ..read more

European gas demand in 2023 fell to its lowest level in 10 years as countries scale up efficiency measures and renewables deployment. In the two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, gas demand has declined by 20% across the continent. The latest version of IEEFA’s European LNG Tracker reveals that falling gas demand has been driven mainly by Germany, Italy and the UK. The continent’s LNG consumption is forecasted to peak in 2025 as a result. With markets rapidly curbing their reliance on Russian gas in the wake of the invasion, IEEFA had forecasted that imports of LNG would ris ..read more

European LNG prices have plummeted to a near nine-month low below USD 7/MMbtu – tracking sinking European hub prices amid healthy supply and mild weather. The landing price for front-month delivery of LNG delivered ex-ship (or DES) to northwestern Europe was assessed late on Monday at USD 6.97/MMbtu (EUR 22.07/MWh), USD 0.33 lower from Friday’s settlement. It was also the lowest since 1 June 2023, when it hit USD 6.63/MMbtu, according to data from Spark Commodities. Prices were shadowing the benchmark front-month gas contract on the Dutch TTF hub, which sank to an eight-month low of EUR 23.55 ..read more

Today (February 15), under the AggregateEU platform for joint gas purchasing, the Commission is launching a first mid-term tender, where buyers will be able to submit their gas demand for multiple 6-month periods running from April 2024 to October 2029. The mid-term tender is a new service offered by the Commission to match buyers and sellers beyond the short-term crisis we have faced during the past 2 winters. AggregateEU will collect demand from EU energy customers for up to 5 years, and put these demands out to tender. This mid-term tender aims to ensure stability and predictability of supp ..read more

Spot gas prices in Europe have fallen around 35% since the start of winter. 2024 forward prices in Europe (e.g. TTF) and Asian (e.g. JKM) have fallen by a similar magnitude. This article by Timera Energy sets out what is happening and why. Winter price slump Chart 1 summarises key spot gas & oil price benchmarks (TTF, JKM, Brent parity) showing: 1. How front month spot prices have evolved since the start of winter (i.e from Oct 1st 2023 to Jan 31st 2024) 2. Recent forward curves, coal switching price (CSP) range & US LNG ‘shut in’ range Chart 1: Winter spot price evolution & curr ..read more