The looming LNG battle on the horizon: Asian LNG demand vs next wave supply
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
24m ago
In the red corner is a large new wave of LNG supply, backed predominantly by North American & Qatari gas. In the blue corner is Asian LNG demand growth, backed by two giants (India & China) as well as a range of high growth developing economies (e.g. Vietnam, Thailand & Pakistan). In this article, Timera Energy previews the approaching battle, as well as checking in on the market set up in 2024. Current market state of play The European gas market remains the anchor for Atlantic & Pacific basin LNG prices. Asian prices (e.g. JKM) trade at a premium to European hubs (e.g. TTF ..read more
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Weekly Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
24m ago
The Northeast Asian assessed spot LNG price JKM for the previous week (18 March – 22 March) rose to nearly USD 10 on 18 March from USD 9 the previous week due to a cyclone in Australia and trouble at a liquefaction facility in the U.S. However, it dropped to USD 9 on 22 March amid sluggish demands and declined buying interests due to price hikes since then. METI announced on 21 March that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation as of 17 March stood at 1.60 million tonnes, down 0.11 million tonnes from the previous week. The European gas price TTF rose to USD 9.2 on 18 March from USD 8.6 t ..read more
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Permian Waha gas prices in negative territory for most of March
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
24m ago
Waha gas prices in the Permian spent most of their time in March in negative territory, with prices averaging at -0.2/mmbtu, their lowest monthly average since May19. So what is driving this? (1) Strong associated gas production: higher oil prices are supporting oil production growth in the Permian, which in turn drives associated gas production from more gassy fields. gas production in the Permian rose by more than 10% yoy in Q1 2024; (2) Pipeline constraints from the Permian, as takeaway capacity is being limited by maintenance, including on the El Paso pipeline; (3) Weak US gas demand: unse ..read more
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Will Japan’s returning nuclear reactors cause a global LNG supply glut?
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
24m ago
The unwinding of Japan’s LNG imports that increased since Fukushima nuclear accident will have a ripple effect throughout the global LNG market, especially in Asia. The main impact is that the increase in demand that took place since the Fukushima accident will not be there. The government reversed its policy on nuclear and is now returning nuclear reactors to service. Analysts assumed that the shift to LNG after Fukushima was permanent, but now everything is being reversed. The unwinding of LNG imports will add to the global glut as LNG supplies increase from the US and Qatar and put downward ..read more
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LNG prices in Asia rise again allowing for arbitrage opportunities
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
24m ago
The arbitrage opportunity for shipping US LNG cargoes to Asia has become viable again due to a widening price gap between Europe and Asia, with Asian prices rising because of supply tightness and increased demand. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the spot cargo price for May delivery in Japan/Korea was higher than in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, offering potential profits for rerouting cargoes to Asia despite longer voyage times and higher shipping costs. Factors contributing to this situation include a demand surge in the Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China trading hub ..read more
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Red Sea crisis: limited impact on gas prices and LNG charter rates so far
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
2d ago
So far, the Red sea crisis has had a limited impact on natural gas prices and LNG charter rates. LNG flows dried up via the Suez Canal since early January 2024, with no LNG carrier passing the Red Sea in the last 70 days due to security concerns. While the Red Sea crisis leads to more lengthy and sub-optimal shipping routes, the impact on gas prices and charter rates was rather limited so far, as they continued their downward trend in Q1 2024. There are a couple of reasons why the Red Sea crisis had limited implications on LNG shipping fundamentals: (1) no impact on LNG production: Qatar kept ..read more
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Weekly Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
1w ago
The Northeast Asian assessed spot LNG price JKM for the previous week (11 March – 15 March) stayed the same as low-USD 9s on 15 March from the previous weekend. JKM first decreased due to demand decrease, but, increased due to the trouble of US LNG liquefaction plants.  METI announced on 13 March that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation as of 10 March stood at 1.83 million tonnes, up 0.12 million tonnes from the previous week. The European gas price TTF increased to USD 8.6/MBtu on 15 March from USD 8.5/MBtu the previous weekend. TTF moved the same due to the same reason as JKM ..read more
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Will the LNG wave impact Asian energy markets?
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
1w ago
Global LNG supply is set to expand by almost 50% (or 250 bcm/y) by 2030, driven by Qatar and the US. but will it find a home? With European gas demand entering into structural decline and Japan firing back its nuclear power plants, all eyes turn on China, India and other fast growing Asian markets. To put things into perspective: all the new LNG supply by 2030 accounts for less than 10% of Asia’s current coal consumption, a drop in the ocean, with plenty place for coal-to-gas switching. Whether all this new LNG will find a home will depend on a number of factors: (1) The pace of renewables exp ..read more
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Russian gas exports to EU drops 8% in February, led by LNG
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
1w ago
Russian gas exports (pipeline and LNG) to Europe declined by 8.1% month on month to 4.52bcm in February amid flagging demand for Russian LNG, industry data showed on Monday. Russia exported an estimated 2.55bcm of gas via two remaining pipeline routes to Europe, a monthly decline of 0.11bcm, or 4.1%, according to European gas TSO group Entsog. LNG shipments from Russia to Europe – excluding Turkey – were down 12.8% to 1.97bcm, showed ship-tracking data from consultancy Kpler. Of the total, Belgium was the largest importer, with deliveries accounting for nearly half of all Russian supply, or 0 ..read more
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Weekly review of natural gas and LNG prices
Global LNG Hub Blog
by Editor
3w ago
The Northeast Asian assessed spot LNG price JKM for the previous week (26 February – 1 March) increased to mid-USD8s on 1 March from around USD8s the previous weekend. JKM increased due to high demand in April. METI announced on 28 February that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation as of 25 February stood at 2.16 million tonnes, up 0.07 million tonnes from the previous week. The European gas price TTF increased to USD 8.2/MBtu on 1 March from USD 7.3/MBtu the previous weekend. TTF increased due to strong JKM and demand for underground gas storage injection. According to AGSI+, the EU-w ..read more
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