The key highlights for the month Jerome Powell doubled down on the Fed pivot and downplayed inflation fears. Jerome Powell and the Fed shifted into an even more dovish mode during this month’s FOMC. They maintained their forecasts of 3 quarter-point cuts this year, reassured that a strong job market alone will not stop them from cutting rates, and brushed off recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings as bumps along the way down. While what was said was reasonable, the way it was conveyed was meant as a dovish signal. However, the strongest display was their decision to slow the rate of ..read more

We have been providing regular updates on the Advanced Multi-Strategy performance which can be implemented with iFAST. So here's a rare update on our foundational multi-strategy model performance which we teach in our courses. We are proud to say that it has also done well. AllQuant was founded in June 2020 and we are three months shy of our 4th anniversary. In this period, we have gone through the COVID-19 pandemic, and the aggressive interest rate hiking cycle caused by surging inflation. The foundational multi-strategy model portfolio weathered through and generated a total return of 40 ..read more

In one of our earlier posts, we introduced the Defensive TQQQ Plus strategy as a safer way with a better risk-reward ratio to get exposure to technology stocks. Based on feedback, the name isn’t that intuitive and sounds like a mouthful, so I will call it the Defensive Tech Strategy henceforth. If you have not read about it, or want to refresh your memory on how it works, you can visit the link below. A better way to invest in technology stocks - Get higher returns with lesser risk The Mother of Tech Crisis - The Dot Com A thought that lingered after the prior post was whether this strate ..read more

One of the often-cited seasonal patterns in the stock market is the October effect. This refers to the belief that stocks tend to decline during October. This belief is reinforced by the fact that some major market crashes happened during October in the past. Some notable examples include the Panic of 1907, October 1929 leading to the Great Depression, and Black Monday in 1987. Option market participants are pricing in this fear as reflected by the jump in option prices from September to October expiries this year. This can be seen in the VIX futures term structure, showing a jump in implied v ..read more

In Part 1 of this post which was published earlier, we introduced what Fed Funds rates are and how it has impacted the financial markets from 2001 to 2007. If you have not read Part 1, you can find the post in the link below. The Fed Factor: Tracing the Impact of Fed Funds Rate on Financial Markets Since 2001 (Part 1) In Part 2 which is also the final part of this series, we continue from where we left off and look at what happened after 2007. Great Financial Crisis (July 2007 to December 2008) Following the real estate boom from 2004 to 2007 where subprime mortgages permeated deeply into the ..read more

Anyone who invests in foreign markets will be concerned about currency risks. If you live in a country whose currency is strong, this can sometimes be a reason that deters you from investing outside of your homeland. Singapore-based investors faced such a dilemma. Should we diversify our investments beyond the borders? If you look at the past decade or longer, SGD has appreciated against most others be it the Greenback, Kiwi, Aussie, Euro, Yen, Pound, Yuan, or currencies of many other countries. The degree to which currency can impact your investment performance varies. Developed countries’ cu ..read more

We published our Multi-Strategy Model Portfolio Market Wrap for February 2024. Let's see how our retirement heroes, who have been implementing this multi-strategy approach, are faring at the end of February 2024. John, 33 years old, looking to retire in 17 years John invested USD 40K upfront at the beginning of November 2020. He then regularly contributed USD 500 every month subsequently. As of the end of February 2024, he has contributed USD 59.5K. If he sticks to his plan, he can expect to withdraw USD 7.5K every month when he retires in 17 years without ever depleting his retirement nest eg ..read more

February was a month overshadowed by the euphoria in the stock market and cryptos. Despite the markets adjusting their number of rate cut expectations lower, the stock market continues to fly on the back of AI. Bitcoin also powered ahead and reached beyond $63,000 pushing ever closer to its all time record of $69,000. Other asset classes pales in comparison. In particular, bonds went down which is in line with what one would expect as yields went higher with rate cuts being moderated. These are the key highlights for the month. Markets moderated their rate cut expectations from almost seven 25 ..read more

Will the financial market collapse if the Federal Reserve tightens further? This is one of the top concerns today. While this seemed more remote given that both the markets and the Fed have agreed, at least for now, that rates are probably going down this year, things can still change. And with memories of the damage wrecked on the financial markets when the US Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate aggressively in 2022 still fresh on our minds, this concern is understandable. If that scenario materializes, there are things we want to know as investors. How will the different asset classes ..read more

S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced that Amazon.com Inc. (NASD: AMZN) will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASD: WBA) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The change will take effect before the US market opens on Monday, February 26. You may refer to their press release for the reasons. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/amazoncom-set-to-join-dow-jones-industrial-average-uber-to-join-dow-jones-transportation-average-302066705.html One strategy we teach is a trend-following approach applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average component stocks. With this change, we need to updat ..read more