Its back! Long termed readers of this blog will be familiar with our popular “Ask US Anything” blogs. I answer your technical analysis questions, and Craig Aucoin, CFA, answers any questions pertaining to economic or fundamental analysis issues. Today, you can ask ValueTrend to answer your questions on analysis methodologies, stock sectors, bonds, commodities & markets! Your questions will be answered over a series of blogs. IMPORTANT POST YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENT SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ARE A BLOG SUBSCRIBER, DON’T HIT REPLY ON YOUR EMAIL TO ASK YOUR QUESTION. YOU MUST GO TO THE WEBSI ..read more

Today’s blog covers a couple of concerning developments in the economy. But then, I offer more information on a trade that I consider one of the most overlooked opportunities out there. First, the bad news… Spend your way to prosperity? Governments over the past number of years convinced the masses that you can have your cake and eat it too. Keep rates artificially low – encourage consumption, and increase debt with abandon. This went for consumer habits….and government policies. Damn the inflation, full spend ahead! How’d that turn out? Consumers are now being forced to pull back on spending ..read more

“Buy the dip. Sell the rip”. This is an expression used by traders. We’ve just seen a dip, and may now be ready for a rip. You read it here first. I think there’s a good chance for a rally possibly as early as next week! I also think that rally won’t last too long. In my view, it will be a trading opportunity. Buy the dip.  Sell the rip. My evidence for that potential trade is below. Sell the Rip! Larry McDonald, notorious pro trader: “We are in “Sell the Rip” mode”. The VIX “VIX May (new front month) at 17.10 implies an avg daily move of 1.1% every day for the next 30 days (1 sigma ..read more

Lets look at the probabilities of easier money in 2024 – and at the neartermed technical profile for US & CDN markets. Higher for longer? The consensus is pretty mixed insofar as when the US Fed will start to cut, and how many cuts they will make. Contrast this to the confidence in falling rates on the street just a month ago! Higher for longer seems to be the concept now… even in the third quarter (see July & Sept. 2024 consensus) its a pretty low confidence level for even one cut. We don’t see any confidence for a single cut until Nov./ Dec. – and almost no confidence for 2 cuts this ..read more

My two cents on the budget today. No surprises, unfortunately. Same old song. But first…a bubble market? Chart from Zero Hedge Yeah, all those other times were bubbles. This time is different (is it?).     Canada’s Budget “The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Ronald Regan Unbelievable. The biggest travesty of our current government is that we have deprived some village of their local idiot. Don’t take it from me. Comments from some of the most respected economists in Canada keep flowing in: “It’s another step i ..read more

Currently, the S&P is showing early stages of a correction. I have noted recently that my target is for the SPX to correct is 4800, to a probable maximum retreat to 4600. Today lets ponder on the neartermed, and possible mid-termed action for the SPX and the TSX. SPX Notes on this daily chart suggest that the last standing cowboy in this shootout is the 50 day moving average, at about 5100. If that cracks, the case for 4800, or lower, grows stronger. TSX A bit better picture for the TSX (which has less tech than the SPX, which, as predicted on this blog, would be the first to roll over in ..read more

Sometimes I REALLY want to make sure you get the message. That’s why I tend to harp on major themes & strategies that I have a high confidence level in.  Especially when most other investors are looking in a different directions. Through this blog, you’ve witnessed many accurate contrarian calls on inflation, markets, and sectors. Today I will continue to drive my stagflation message home, as I have been doing for nearly 3 years. Its important to understand, so you can position your portfolio correctly. I’ve got your back.   “Few are prepared for any kind of sustained 3-4% infla ..read more

Why have gold stocks lagged bullion? “The answer lies in underlying costs that have increased over time, blunting the flow through to the bottom line despite the positive impact of higher commodity prices on revenues. But with gold prices projected to go higher (a move towards $3,000 is not out of the question), coupled with a sufficient margin of safety embedded in current valuations (priced for ~$1,500 per ounce), we believe this group should not be overlooked — offering an excellent risk/reward proposition.” David Rosenberg This chart compares the Canadian gold producers XGD ETF to bullion ..read more

The 1939 film of the Wizard of Oz is a movie that withstands the test of time. In one scene, Dorothy walks down the yellow-brick road with the scarecrow, tin man and lion while chanting “Lions & tigers & bears…Oh my!” This light hearted chant was an attempt to dissipate their fears of unseen dangers in the forest. Today, we are seeing rallies in gold, metals and oil.  I have been hammering on these sectors for most of the winter – well before the rallies began. Are these these sectors now signaling dangers in the forest? I think they are. War, what is it good for? Edwin Starr san ..read more

A reader posted a comment asking me about the VIX. I gave her a quick reply, basically noting that it is moving up (indicating rising volatility) after touching the “complacency” level of around 12 recently. Today, I thought it might be interesting to examine a pattern on the VIX that might indicate the potential for a pullback very shortly. To start, I’d like to note that I view the VIX in a few ways. I like to look for macro market extremes.  I also look at the VIX for near termed patterns. MACRO VIX extremes If you follow this blog regularly, you know that I post something I call the ..read more