Introduction I haven't updated in a long time. This is partly because other things in my life have taken priority over Tesla, but also because My Tesla Investment Thesis 3 still speaks for itself, and I expect it will for the foreseeable future. It's unlikely that anything will change about Tesla's long-term outlook, until perhaps we see more specifics surrounding AMaaS' exact business model, financials, and rollout that will allow me to make more precise predictions, or until there is more clarity surrounding Tesla Bot's potential, business model, timeline, and financials. At the en ..read more

I'm going to keep this post very brief. I may have finished my MBA, but there are a lot of things in my life that I'd like to spend time on that are not Tesla and investing. Nonetheless, I'd like to take some time to share this research I've done over the past week into Tesla options. More specifically, research into Tesla call option spreads. I've never been a huge fan of them in the past, because I've always calculated my options returns in # of shares. I still plan to be fully invested in TSLA for the foreseeable future as I explained in detail in My Tesla Investment Thesis 3, so any deviat ..read more

Introduction Quite some time has passed since my last blog post. Part of the reason for this is the fact that I've been busy with my MBA program. Although I'm only about halfway through the 1-year program, in terms of effort/courses I've completed closer to 80% of the degree. Currently I just finished my summer break, which is why I have had enough spare time to finish the massive project that this post has turned out to be. However, the other reason as to why a lot of time has passed since my last post has to do with the nature of my posts. Just about everything I've written in this blog has ..read more

Previous installments: Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion: Predicting TSLA's post-inclusion stock price Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion Part 2: Predicting the transformation of the TSLA float Options market and delta hedging knowledge: The TSLA Options Market is an order of magnitude larger than any other The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise (chapter 4) Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion Part 2: Predicting the transformation of the TSLA float (chapter 5) Table of Contents: Introduction 3:00PM - 3:50PM The Closing Cross After Hours Trading TSLA Going Forward Final Thoughts ..read more

This is a follow-up to my previous S&P inclusion post: Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion: Predicting TSLA's post-inclusion stock price This post is also, in a way, a continuation of my TSLA Holders series: The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise TSLA Holders Q1'20 (Top 58) TSLA Holders Q2'20 (Top 69) The model I am presenting in this blog post can be viewed and downloaded here: TSLA Holders S&P - PDF TSLA Holders S&P - Excel TSLA Holders S&P - Numbers The "S&P" tab is the model I am presenting in this blog post. The "#" tab is my TSLA Holders spreadsheet ..read more

Yesterday, I pointed out in this blog post that, based on data I gathered from 13F filings, a large number of TSLA shares seem to have gone missing during Q3, to the tune of 100M shares. I turns out I made a small mistake, so the number is actually a little over 50M shares, but nonetheless this is a large number of shares that went missing, which can't simply be explained away by retail buying, delta hedging, and smaller institutional investors increasing their stakes. Twitter user @s17_scott and TMC user Thekiwi pointed out to me that Berkshire Hathaway omitted one company from its 13F filing ..read more

Tesla's S&P 500 inclusion is finally here, and it's shaping up to be a truly unprecedented inclusion. I outlined a few of the reasons why Tesla's inclusion is so special in this blog post a few months ago: Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion: Predicting TSLA's post-inclusion stock price The actual announcement has made it clear that the committee is also aware of the unique nature of this inclusion, because I've never heard of an inclusion quite like this one for two reasons. There are five weeks between the announcement and when the actual inclusion takes place (Dec 21st). This time usually ..read more

The Future of this Blog Before I share my earnings forecast, I first want to briefly talk about the future of this blog. Since I started this blog in June of last year, I've been self-employed, which has given me the ability to drop everything and spend 12 hours a day working on blog posts for a week or two, like I did when I wrote My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0. This is about to change, because I am currently in the middle of relocating to Singapore to do an MBA, which starts in January. Whereas a lot of MBA programs are one and a half or two years in duration, my MBA (INSEAD) is a one year p ..read more

Introduction A week and a half ago, Tesla announced a five-for-one stock split, and the stock has been on an absolute tear since then: Yahoo - TSLA Chart - 3/8 to 22/8 Ever since then, there have been discussions on the TMC Investor Forum about how various parties are affected by the stock split. What happens to long positions, derivative positions, and normal short positions is relatively straight forward, and it didn't take long for the consensus to reflect this. However, a consensus has still not been reached on how one particular position is affected by the stock split: a naked ..read more

This blog gives an overview of who the largest TSLA shareholders are as of the end of Q2'20, and how it changed compared to the end of Q1'20. For the previous two installments please refer to: The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise TSLA Holders Q1'20 (Top 58) A spreadsheet with the complete data can be downloaded here: TSLA Holders Q2'20 PDF TSLA Holders Q2'20 Excel TSLA Holders Q2'20 Numbers Top 69 TSLA Holders Q2'20 #1: Elon Musk Type: Insider Previous Rank: #1 Previous Shares: 38,658,670 Current Shares: 38,658,670 Change: 0% Stake: 20.7% #2: Baillie ..read more