We are now (from an election season perspective) in the “calm before the storm.” The Republican convention has just concluded, the opening ceremonies for the Olympics are a week from today, and then the Democratic convention convenes on August 19 in Chicago. Primary season (for Congressional, state, legislative, and local races) is also underway across the country, with 19 states yet to hold primaries for Congressional and/or legislative races (the next scheduled primary is Arizona’s on July 30, while Louisiana’s primary coincides with the federal election day of November 5). Today’s “Election ..read more

Election Day is on November 5, which seems like the distant future (for one thing, only 25 states have even held their primaries as this article is being written), but with the major party’s nominees’ essentially being determined several months ago, now is the time to begin the discussion about the upcoming Presidential election season and its associated political atmospherics, as this “background noise” creates the climate President Biden faces in his re-election effort. Voter registration data In 30 states, voters register by party. Over time, party preferences of voters can change, either d ..read more

Louisiana has since the 1970s had an open primary system for electing its public officials, whereby candidates (regardless of party) run on the same primary and/or general election ballot. In the first special session of 2024, the law was changed to restrict who could participate in primary elections for the US House/Senate, the Public Service Commission, the Supreme Court, and the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education starting in the Spring of 2026. JMC Analytics and Polling was again commissioned by private subscribers to poll Louisianians about the state’s open primary system/switchin ..read more

Ever since early voting was established in Louisiana nearly 20 years ago, it has steadily become an accepted method of voting, and it has reshuffled existing assumptions about how to plan “get out the vote” activities. The coronavirus pandemic of 2020-2022 added a nuance to the “accepted method of voting”, however, as mail in voting has seen a surge in popularity that has not returned to pre-2020 levels. So, what did yesterday’s early voting tell us, despite a Presidential contest that is essentially on autopilot ? Louisianians “mail it in” – again Historically, the mail in component of early ..read more

JMC Analytics and Polling conducted a poll of likely national Republican voters. Major takeaways are as follows: (1) Former President Trump retains the strong residual support of Republican voters, (2) Governor Ron DeSantis has seen some slippage in his support, and (3) If former President Trump were to skip the debate, his absence wouldn’t matter to many Republican primary voters. The poll writeup can be found here ..read more

JMC Analytics and Polling conducted a poll of likely national Republican voters. Major takeaways are as follows: (1) Former President Trump retains the strong residual support of Republican voters, (2) Only Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott have similar strong favorable ratings, and, (3) Republican voters are not as monolithically conservative as narrative would have it. The poll writeup can be found here ..read more

JMC Analytics and Polling was recently commissioned by the Louisiana Film Entertainment Association/LFEA (which can be reached at either www.lfea.org or www.FilmLouisiana.com) to poll Louisianians about the state’s film industry/tax incentives to develop this industry. Major takeaways are as follows: (1) The film industry in Louisiana is held in high esteem, (2) Tax incentives to develop the film industry in Louisiana enjoy broad public support, and (3) Since the last poll was conducted in January, the numbers generally have not changed from a statistical significance standpoint. The actual po ..read more

JMC was recently commissioned by the Justice Action Network to poll Louisianians about attitudes related to the criminal justice system. Major takeaways are as follows: Crime is the number one issue for Louisianians; Voters are unhappy about the current functioning of the criminal justice system; Attitudes have changed about how non-violent offenders should be dealt with by the criminal justice system. The actual poll itself can be found here ..read more

JMC was recently commissioned to poll both the Governor and Attorney General’s races. Major takeaways are as follows: 1. In the Governor’s race, two candidates clearly lead the field (although the primary is still nearly seven months away); 2. In the Attorney General’s race, District Attorney John Belton’s biography is attractive to voters. The actual poll itself can be found here ..read more

Former East Baton Rouge Parish School Board President David Tatman (who also owns his own lobbying firm) has a podcast called “The Pelican Brief.” John Couvillon was a recent guest, and he was interviewed about both the 2023 Louisiana Governor’s race and the 2024 Presidential primary contests. His interview can be found here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/louisiana-will-have-a-new-governor-in-2024-tune-in/id1668687539?i=1000602397941 ..read more