Thursday 9th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t any tier one data overnight to give markets any clear direction. You could say there was an air of subduedness. The Riksbank cut rates, as suggested yesterday, but one ECB member is concerned that going too early, against a Fed that keeps rates on hold longer, could drive the Euro lower and add to inflation concerns. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the problem emerges after one or two cuts, alongside a Fed that’s not moving. So what’s the Bank of England’s s ..read more

Wednesday 8th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB is still expecting that the RBA’s next move will be a cut in November, because yesterday’s meeting did raise the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains too persistent. NAB’s Skye Masters says the market reaction was tame because none of this came as a surprise. We’ve known that inflation was taking time to come down, and the revisions to the RBA’s inflation forecasts yesterday simply reaffirmed that belief. Neel Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed also spo ..read more

Tuesday 7th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut rates this week though. Listen in for more on that, plus the hopes of a peace deal in the Mid ..read more

Monday 6th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAAB’s Ken Crompton says we shouldn’t get too excited by the unemployment rate because it’s a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a little, with a 75% chance the Fed will move in September. In Australia home loans data wasn’t ..read more

Friday 3rd May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst there’s a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says there’s still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to prices pushing higher. Katie’s approach is to build a portfolio based on technicals. “I do read macro stra ..read more

Thursday 2nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a caut ..read more

Wednesday 1st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Sk ..read more

Tuesday 30th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australia’s retail numbers will be the focus ..read more

Monday 29th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal rep ..read more

Friday 26th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the ..read more